RAJASTHAN
In the winter of 2013, Vasundhara Raje led the BJP to a spectacular victory in Rajasthan. It bagged 163 of 200 seats in the state legislature. Five years earlier, in December 2008, she had conceded the post of chief minister to Congress leader Ashok Ghelot. If she wins in December 2018, she will join an elite group of BJP stalwarts—Raman Singh of Chhattisgarh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh, and Narendra Modi of Gujarat—who have got a third term as chief minister.
But, it will be no cakewalk for her. A few months after she took charge in 2013, she was credited for winning all of the state's 25 Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 elections. The BJP rode on her hard work, but, more importantly, on the Modi wave. That wave seems to be ebbing now.
Raje's Rajasthan witnessed Pehlu Khan's lynching after the ban on cow slaughter. It is also home to Rajsamand, where the fanatic Shambhu Lal Regar hacked and burnt a Muslim to death. Rajasthan ranked third in the number of rape cases in 2015.
Besides the law and order problem, some laws she brought in could hamper her chances at the hustings. One is the infamous “gag order”. On October 22, the Criminal Laws (Rajasthan Amendment) Bill 2017 was introduced, to protect public servants and judges from prosecution and bar the media from reporting allegations against them without the government's approval. Following massive protests, Raje beat a retreat by referring the bill to a committee, where it is hibernating.
The other law that clothed her in controversy was the Rajasthan Ministers' Salaries (Amendment) Bill 2017, passed in April. It allowed a chief minister who has completed an uninterrupted five-year-term to choose a government bungalow for lifetime, with a host of perks.
After she chose a house in the heart of Jaipur, dissident BJP leader Ghanshyam Tiwari alleged that it was worth Rs 2,000 crore and that Vasundhara's was Rajasthan's most corrupt government ever.
The chief minister, however, speaks Modi's language. She asserts that Rajasthan has shed the BIMARU tag, and is catching up with the more developed states. “My government has been proactive and has taken several new initiatives,” she said a few months ago. “We have fulfilled virtually all the promises made in the election manifesto.”
But, with the Congress having come close to upsetting the BJP in Gujarat, Raje, Modi and BJP president Amit Shah will have to get their act together. “This election has shown that a new Congress president with a new vigour and energy, willing to challenge the BJP in its strongest base, can deliver us almost a halfway mark,” said Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee president Sachin Pilot. “That has galvanised the morale of the Congress cadres here and all over the country.”
“To say that because they've won, the winner takes it all... politics is not like that,” he said. Pointing out that there are unsolved issues like farmers in distress, joblessness and the economic slowdown, Pilot said that “politics of self-praise and propaganda cannot substitute the grievance redress that is required.”
Pilot is said to have visited every district over four times and covered over 3 lakh kilometres in the four years since he made Jaipur his home. More importantly, the Congress won three of five byelections in that time, and its candidates were elected chairmen of municipal corporations in Raje's home borough of Jhalawar and home district of Dholpur.
KARNATAKA
Holding his ground: Siddaramaiah’s biggest challenge will be to repeat the Congress’s 2013 feat of winning 122 of 224 seats | PTI
The battle for Gujarat saw the BJP retain its pride and the Congress rekindle its flickering hope. The focus now shifts to Karnataka, one of the last big bastions of the Congress and the BJP's gateway to south India, which will go to the polls in May 2018.
The Patidar agitation for reservation in Gujarat is strikingly similar to the Lingayat agitation in Karnataka—the population of the two communities is 15 per cent and both have been BJP supporters. But with crowds at Patidar agitations not translating into votes for the Congress, it now fears the Lingayats might continue to vote for the BJP. In fact, the Congress is being blamed for splitting the Veerashaivas and Lingayats, who, till now, were considered one block.
As Karnataka, too, is the hindutva laboratory of the sangh parivar, the upcoming polls might see the BJP's hindutva agenda pitted against 'Ahinda' (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and dalits) politics of the Congress. However, Modi’s development agenda and Siddaramaiah’s populist schemes will steer the campaign.
Unlike Gujarat, Karnataka is set for a triangular fight, with the presence of Janata Dal (Secular), so the anti-incumbency vote will not go entirely to the BJP. The JD(S) is also likely to eat into the minority votes of the Congress. The challenge for the ruling Congress is to repeat its 2013 feat of winning 122 of 224 seats. The BJP managed just 50 seats, less than half the seats it got in 2008 to form the first BJP government in the south.
To reduce anti-incumbency vote, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is banking on his populist programmes (like Anna Bhagya and Ksheera Bhagya). The government has set aside Rs 100 crore for publicising its schemes. “Our pro-people programmes will speak for themselves. The BJP's communal agenda of dividing the communities will not work. It is laughable how the BJP is taking a moral high ground on corruption, when both its state and national presidents [B.S. Yeddyurappa and Amit Shah] have been to jail,” mocked Siddaramaiah, who launched the 'Sadhana Samavesha' rally to showcase his achievements.
Yeddyurappa has embarked on a 75-day 'Parivarthana Yatre'. “We will focus on the Congress's failures and highlight the BJP’s work in the state during our rule and now at the Centre under Modiji's leadership,” he said.
Janata Dal (S) state president H.D. Kumaraswamy said Karnataka was unlike Gujarat. “Modi has no issues to rake up here, not even corruption, as the BJP's CM candidate, Yeddyurappa, is tainted,” he said. “Moreover, the BJP and the Centre have failed to resolve the Mahadayi [water sharing] issue.”
NORTHEAST
Red fort: In Tripura, the CPI(M) holds 51 of 60 seats, and Manik Sarkar enjoys a clean image | Salil Bera
After Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, the BJP wants Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya, which have 60 assembly seats each.
In Nagaland, the BJP is part of the ruling Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) and has four MLAs. The BJP helped form the DAN, by bringing together two factions of the Naga People’s Front (NPF)—one led by present Chief Minister T.R. Zeliang and the other by former chief minister Shurhozelie Liezietsu.
Actually, the NPF and BJP were forced into bed by political necessity. The NPF is said to be close to the separatist National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Izak-Muivah). Nagaland BJP president V. Lhoungu said, “It’s good that they sorted out their differences before the election. In fact, we stand to benefit from the NPF’s internal disturbances.” Fishing in troubled waters, the BJP might contest 40 seats in the polls.
Lhoungu said that while the alliance with the NPF would continue, there could be disagreements over certain seats. “So, we would like to fight those seats on our own,” he said. “We will double our tally in the assembly this time, and we will win Lok Sabha seats in 2019.”
The Congress, too, is hoping to benefit from the feud in the NPF. Also, the numbers give the Congress hope. Of 11 lakh voters in Nagaland, 8 lakh are Christians. And, Bajrang Dal antics like the recent one in Satna, MP, against carol singers, will alienate pro-BJP voters among Christian.
K. Therie, president of the Nagaland Pradesh Congress Committee, said, “The Central government restricted funds to churches, NGOs and... even missionary hospitals. Many people used to get free treatment in these clinics. Would they forgive the BJP?”
In Meghalaya, where Christians form 81 per cent of the population, the BJP has no ally. The National People’s Party (NPP) led by Conrad K. Sangma, MP, is part of the NDA in the Lok Sabha, but refuses to ally with the BJP in the assembly. Political observers say this is to ensure that the NPP does not lose out on anti-BJP votes of Christians.
Shibun Lyngdoh, BJP state president in Meghalaya, confirmed that the party might go it alone. Amit Shah’s point man for Meghalaya assembly polls is Union Minister Alphons Kannanthanam. Shah expects him to form the first BJP government in the state.
The BJP’s task could be easier in Tripura, which is dominated by Bengalis. The BJP’s point man for the state, former RSS pracharak Sunil Deodhar, shifted to Tripura a year ago, and started wooing disgruntled Congress and Trinamool Congress leaders. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat also drops in from time to time to support him. Because of the state’s proximity to Bangladesh, BJP rallies are drawing huge crowds.
“Modiji and Amit Shahji want communists to go. Former Congressmen like me left the party because of its closeness to communists in Delhi,” said Sudip Roy Barman, BJP leader and former opposition leader in Tripura.
In Tripura, the BJP’s allies are the Indigenous National Party of Tripura (INPT) and the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT). The IPTF wants a separate state for tribal people, and the INPT wants inner line permits (ILP) for visitors to Tripura. INPT leader B.K. Hrangkhawl said the BJP had agreed to its demand. The BJP has refused to talk about the deals it has struck with the IPFT and INPT.
“We are not at all worried about our performance,” said Gautam Das, CPI(M) state secretariat member. “For many decades, tribals and Bengalis have lived in peace. The RSS and BJP are here to break that.” The CPI(M) holds 51 of 60 seats, and Chief Minister Manik Sarkar enjoys a clean image. But, a teacher recruitment scam, unemployment and lack of development are worries.
While fighting for Tripura, the BJP has a much bigger prize in mind: “If we win Tripura, West Bengal will be very easy to crack,” said Deodhar.
MADHYA PRADESH
Tight grip: Chouhan is into his 13th year as chief minister, and is gunning for a fourth term | PTI
On December 18, as trends in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh stabilised, a message went out to BJP district chiefs in Madhya Pradesh, from Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan's office: “Celebrate this victory in a big way, in all party offices.”
At noon, Chouhan joined party workers and former chief minister Babulal Gaur at Pandit Deendayal Parisar, the state BJP HQ. Chouhan said, “The victories have proved that Narendra Modi is God's blessing to our country. These wins will ensure that the party wins in Madhya Pradesh for the fourth time. We have launched Mission 2018 with a target of 200 seats.” Currently the BJP holds 165 of 230 seats.
The twin victories have lifted the spirits of the BJP's units in MP and Chhattisgarh; assembly polls are due in both states in late 2018. In Chhattisgarh, vote difference between the BJP and the Congress is less than 1 per cent. And, in MP, the BJP lost the Ater and Chitrakoot bypolls.
MP had seen statewide farmer unrest early this year; six peasants were killed in police firing. Chouhan, who is into his 13th year as chief minister, is fighting anti-incumbency and scandals like the Vyapam scam.
The twin victories will boost Chouhan's campaign in upcoming bypolls—Mungawali and Kolaras. The Congress is expected to fight hard for these seats. Both fall under Guna Lok Sabha constituency held by Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia. The Congress has been regaining lost ground in MP, a state it has not won since 2003.
Political columnist Devdutt Dubey said that while a loss in Gujarat would have hit the BJP hard in MP, the win would have only a minimal impact on polls that are a year away. State Congress president Arun Yadav said, “Our performance has improved a lot in Gujarat, and it is clear that Rahul Gandhi's leadership is the only alternative to the BJP. We will benefit from both and win MP hands down.”
Pankaj Chaturvedi, Congress spokesperson in MP, said, “Rahul Gandhi's leadership from the front has inspired Congress workers in MP.” J.P. Dhanopia, Congress leader from Bhopal, noted that the party had battle-hardened leaders like Kamal Nath and Scindia, as well.
Psephologist Yogesh Rathore said the Congress optimism could be misplaced as Gujarat elections showed that the BJP could win polls with grassroots cadres and micro-management. “The Congress is poor on both counts in MP,” he said, “and it also does not have a face like the BJP has. Gujarat results have shown that it is possible to buck anti-incumbency.” Opposition Leader Ajay Singh said the Congress was better organised in MP than in Gujarat.
Congress workers in MP and Chhattisgarh want Rahul Gandhi to concentrate on these states; his last visit was about one and a half years ago. “We have cornered the BJP in Chhattisgarh and our leaders are exposing the ruling party every day,” said Satyanarayan Sharma, senior Congress leader and former minister. “Rahul Gandhi's leadership and our powerful show in Gujarat have increased pressure on the BJP.”
Political observers feel that the BJP would be banking on Modi's charisma to cancel the anti-incumbency against Chief Ministers Chouhan and Raman Singh. Senior journalist Manish Shrivastava said that while Gujaratis related to Modi as the son of the soil, voters in MP and Chhattisgarh would be looking at state-specific issues.
