Pakistan knows what will happen if it tries another Pulwama

Interview/ Rajnath Singh, Defence minister

Rajnath Singh | Sanjay Ahlawat Rajnath Singh | Sanjay Ahlawat

A year after the Balakot strikes, do you notice any change in Pakistan’s terror policy?

International pressure has been built on Pakistan. It is forced to take action against homegrown terror outfits. [The Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief] Hafiz Saeed has been given a prison sentence. Action has also been taken against Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar.

Will Pakistan ever give up using terrorism for strategic advantage?

If this is Pakistan’s strategy, then it is a failed strategy. It is due to terrorism that it is facing so many problems at the international level. The Financial Action Task Force has kept Pakistan on its grey list and warned that it can go into the black list soon. It is proving to be a disadvantage.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that if a war takes place, India can defeat Pakistan in 7-10 days. On what basis does he say that?

That question would arise only if Pakistan had ever won a war. All four times—1948, 1965, 1971 and in the Kargil War of 1999—Pakistan lost to India. So where is the doubt whether India will win? Today, we have moved much ahead in capabilities. I would say the result is pre-declared. This is not just my claim, the international community agrees with it.

How is the preparedness of our armed forces?

The morale is upbeat. Their biggest strength is that they are upbeat and rational at the same time. On both India-China and India-Pakistan borders, they maintain a rational approach. Whenever there is a face-off on the India-China border, the Chinese army and our own forces do not allow the confrontation to escalate. Even during ceasefire violations on the India-Pakistan border, our instructions are clear. The first bullet will not be fired by us; but if we are shot at, the forces are free to fire. They do not have to wait for directions from the government.

The Modi government’s zero tolerance to terror policy resulted in the Balakot strikes. If there is a Pulwama II, can we expect a Balakot II?

Why should a Pulwama II happen? It will not. Pakistan knows what will happen if it tries another Pulwama. It knows the answer well.

Will India and Pakistan see normalcy as neighbours?

India has always tried to keep good relations with its neighbours. In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited prime minister Nawaz Sharif to his swearing-in ceremony. Once he went to Pakistan, even breaking protocol. We have always treated Pakistan as our neighbour. But the respect Pakistan should have shown towards India was not there. It did not respond to our gestures. When prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee went to Lahore in a bus, the result was Kargil. Pakistan needs to change its attitude. I am confident this will happen. If not today, then tomorrow.

India conducted surgical strikes in 2016 and Balakot in 2019. Why did Pakistan not retaliate?

This is something only Pakistan can answer. Its morale is getting weak. It is suffering economically. The people of Pakistan want good relations with India, but their establishment continues to indulge in nefarious acts against India.

When will we reclaim PoK?

We are getting reports that unrest is increasing among the people of PoK. It is occupied territory; it has never been a part of that country. Pakistan’s attitude towards the people of PoK is step-motherly. They are fed up. We cannot rule out the possibility of people in PoK rising and demanding that they cannot stay with Pakistan and want to be with India. This possibility exists as there is increasing dissatisfaction. The unrest is spreading rapidly.

The war rhetoric has gone up. Both countries are talking of war.

It is [Pakistan Prime Minister] Imran Khan who talked about a nuclear threat. It is the weak who keep repeating threats.

How seriously does the government take the threat?

When Imran Khan says they have nuclear capability, he knows our capability is no less.

What is the level of infiltration on the LoC after the Balakot strikes and the withdrawal of Article 370?

Pakistan is still making attempts to infiltrate terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir. But our Army, local police, Central police forces and the Intelligence Bureau are alert and are thwarting these attempts. Today, the situation is better in J&K and it is getting normalised day by day. The number of terrorists in J&K has decreased.

How do you see the two-front war scenario?

I do not see any two-front war scenario. Though we prepare ourselves for all situations, I think any war with China is unreal. We have good relations with China. Whenever there is a problem on the border, that is resolved through dialogue. Both sides ensure that there is no escalation.

Is homegrown terror on the rise in J&K?

No. Compared with the the past, it has decreased. Terror-related incidents have gone down. Earlier, there were incidents on a daily basis. Those have decreased. The people of Kashmir want peace and tranquility. The separatists were misguiding the youth, instigating them to pelt stones. But they were sending their own children to foreign universities. Now people are realising it. They have started asking how anti-national forces are getting funds. It was out of fear that they did not speak out earlier. Now, a huge section of people is happy that peace is returning.

When will the political process resume?

It has started. The fact that a Union territory has been formed is a result of a political process. The elections to block development councils and panchayats have been held. There has been significant polling. We want normalcy. Our aim is that Kashmir should be a paradise on earth not just for India, but for the entire world.

But the Abdullahs and Mehbooba are in detention.

Their mindset has to change. They should be willing to contribute to bringing normalcy. Then, God willing, they will be released. I am praying for them; my prayer is that they help restore normalcy.

What about the statehood demand in J&K? People are unhappy with the UT status.

Where is the demand for statehood? If statehood had helped, development would have taken place, and law and order would have been normal. That did not happen. Even the assembly polls witnessed less polling. So the political process never took place properly. This is an experiment we are doing by making it a Union territory. We will bring development to J&K. The power should be with the people, not one or two people—I am not saying families.

Are you considering withdrawal of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act?

The time will come for it. This is not the right time.

How do you look at the proposed US pull-out from Afghanistan?

India wants peace in Afghanistan. Whatever help is required from India, it will be extended. India has always helped and will do so in future. The US decision to pull out its troops was taken long back but it has not happened so far. Any decision to send Indian troops to Afghanistan will depend on the emerging situation. We will take the right decision at the right moment.

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The opposition has been critical of the government for the lapses that led to the Pulwama attack. You were home minister then.

It has been a year and an inquiry has already taken place. When lapses happen, lessons have to be learnt and improvements [have to be made] as required. The security forces take all precautions. If an unfortunate incident happens, it does not mean that it will happen again and again.

The minorities are feeling threatened because of the National Population Register and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.

Whoever is an Indian citizen need not worry about any kind of assault on his rights and interests. Some people have tried to create confusion in the minds of Indian Muslims. All efforts are being made to replace the sense of fear in the minds of minorities with a sense of confidence.

The home minister said there would be a National Register of Indian Citizens, but the prime minister has said the opposite.

Whatever we may say, the final word is that of the prime minister. The Indian citizens, the Muslims, their interest will not be hurt.

Where do we stand in our relationship with the US vis-a-vis our old ally Russia?

We have good relations with both Russia and the US. Russia has been our old ally and we have been getting arms from them. We need to be in touch with them for maintenance and repair as majority of our weaponry is of Russian origin. We have signed [to purchase the] S-400 air defence missile system from Russia. We are dependent on Russia. The US understands it.

Have our efforts to resolve border disputes with China yielded results?

Both sides keep having dialogues at regular intervals. NSA-level talks are one such platform where both sides discuss issues on border mechanism. I do not see the border dispute becoming a major cause of concern. Still, I hope we sort out all pending issues. I personally feel whenever there is a border dispute, it can be resolved through negotiations. There have been no instances of escalation. It shows the positive attitude of both sides.

All three services say budgetary constraints are the biggest roadblocks affecting modernisation.

Allocation for defence has been increasing. As much as 16 per cent of the entire allocation is for defence. I do not think that budget is an issue. We need to prioritise our military purchases.

The government has recently appointed General Bipin Rawat as the first chief of defence staff. What are we trying to achieve with the post?

The appointment of the CDS is a great move towards jointness of the three services. Efforts to bring synergy have already begun. Decisions will be taken as a team.

How do you see the recent Supreme Court verdict on giving permanent commission to women officers?

It was a good judgment; I welcome it. Women are not less than men in any sphere.