Russia's invasion of Ukraine will continue, but the Kremlin has decided to change tracks, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia still harbours ambitions of capturing Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson oblasts completely but would be looking at options other than military means. The Kremlin aims to achieve its means through political pressure and negotiations, the ISW report added.
Major cities that are not under Russian rule include Zaporizhzhia (706,000 people), Kherson (275,000) and Kramatorsk (147,000) remain under Ukrainian control.
As per the ISW report, Russia is demanding that Ukraine surrender these cities. It will also employ the same tactics of oppression, displacement and forcible assimilation. Russia is allegedly facing losses in the frontline which indicates that it will likely be unable to occupy the full extent of these oblasts through military means. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's recent statements are an attempt to achieve its goals through negotiations, the ISW said.
Lavrov, who recently led the Russian delegation for the US-Russia talks, said the negotiations that result in freezing the current frontlines in Ukraine are impossible because the Russian Constitution stipulates that Russia’s borders include all of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts.
The presence of Nato troops in Ukraine is 'unacceptable', even if they are operating under a different flag, says the Russian Foreign Minister.
— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) February 18, 2025
Sergei Lavrov was speaking following the first round of talks between Russia and the US on ending the war in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/xVfRduWLt1
The report said that Russian officials directly involved in negotiations with the US continue to insist that any peace agreement to resolve the war in Ukraine must be based on Russia’s 2021 demands. They also insist on the surrender to Russia of territory that Ukrainian forces currently hold that is home to major cities and well over a million people.
North Korean soldiers
The ISW report released Wednesday also reports that North Korea may increase supplies to Russia amid deepening bilateral cooperation. Satellite imagery shows "suspicious activity" at the port of Rason and this could be the transfer of cargo, including military supplies, it added.
The satellites identified a 110-metre-long vessel docked at the port of Rason, located near the borders with China and Russia. A row of containers measuring roughly 100 metres in length can be seen near the dock. "The vessel reportedly arrived at the inner side of Rason Port's pier on 20 February and moved to the outer side on 21 February, indicating that the vessel unloaded containers on the pier's inner side and loaded new containers on the outer side before departing," the report added.
