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'Militants could destabilise': What Russia fears as it conducts drills with Tajik troops near Afghan border

Russia's Lt. Gen. Poplavsky said Taliban could push pro-IS groups into Tajikistan

Russia Putin Russian President Vladimir Putin

Russian and Tajik troops conducted joint drills near Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan, as a possible deterrent against militancy emanating from the region. The exercises at the Momirak firing range about 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of the Afghan border involved armored vehicles and helicopter gunships.

It was part of week-long war games that brought together about 5,000 troops and over 700 armored vehicles from Russia, Tajikistan and several other ex-Soviet nations, which are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a Moscow-dominated security pact.

ALSO READ: What Taliban rule means for different South Asian nations

Tajik Defense Minister Sherali Mirzo said the drills were decided amid the catastrophic changes after the withdrawal of the international coalition from Afghanistan. "Terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan have obtained many modern weapons, significantly improved their positions and using the current situation create conditions for its transformation into a foothold for further destructive actions in the region," Mirzo added.

Russia's changing dynamics with Taliban

On Wednesday, as Russia hosted talks that involved the Taliban along with senior diplomats from China, Pakistan, Iran, India and the former Soviet nations, he noted Taliban's efforts to combat the Islamic State group and other militants. Destabilisation via the militant groups is one of the biggest worries for Russia, and not an unwarranted one, if we look at history. 

The Soviet Union fought a 10-year war in Afghanistan that ended with its troops withdrawing in 1989. Since then, Moscow has made a comeback as an influential power broker in international talks on Afghanistan. It has worked continuously to cultivate ties with the Taliban, hosting their representatives for a series of bilateral and multilateral meetings. A month before Taliban militants unleashed their offensive that ended with the seizure of Kabul, their delegation visited Moscow to offer assurances that they wouldn’t threaten the interests of Russia and its ex-Soviet allies in Central Asia — a sign that they consider ties with Russia a priority.

Taliban spokesman Mohammad Sohail Shaheen had said during a visit last month to the Russian capital that “we won’t allow anyone to use the Afghan territory to attack Russia or neighboring countries,” noting that “we have very good relations with Russia”.

Russia seeks Taliban’s focus on fighting the Islamic State group, which Moscow sees as the main threat from Afghanistan. Moscow also had hailed the Taliban’s pledge to combat drug trafficking and stem the flow of drugs from Afghanistan via Central Asia. Russian ambassador to Kabul, Dmitry Zhirnov, had praised the Taliban as “reasonable guys” following a "positive and constructive meeting", and said that "the group had helped to make the Afghan capital safer in the first 24 hours after the US exit [in the final week of August]."

However, the dynamics had quickly changed. Russia had expressed concerns about the restrictions on airlifting citizens, and had even stated that the "situation remains tense". They have expressed similar statements since?

What are Russia's concerns?

Russia's initial schadenfreude on the US humiliation in Kabul did not last long. An influx of refugees into Central America could spell trouble for Russia's backyard, as extremists could be hidden as refugees. Russia also has long-standing contacts within the minority communities in Afghanistan, mainly the Tajiks and the Uzbeks, who look to be completely sidelined in the current scheme of things. 

Moscow has vowed to provide military assistance to its ex-Soviet allies in Central Asia to help counter possible threats and held a series of joint drills in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which neighbor Afghanistan. Russia has a military base in Tajikistan, its largest military outpost in the former Soviet Union. It also maintains an air base in Kyrgyzstan, and jets based there took part in this week's war games.

Lt. Gen. Yevgeniy Poplavsky, deputy commander of the Russian armed forces' Central Military District who oversaw the drills, described them as part of training to counter possible security challenges. The fighting between the Taliban and the Islamic State in northern Afghanistan raised fears of IS fighters and other militants flowing into Central Asian nations. "[The Taliban] will try to push all pro-ISIS military groups out its territory or to destroy them and to become the only one [in power]," Poplavsky said. "That is why we don't exclude the option that they will push them to Tajikistan's territory."

-Inputs from agencies

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