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Biden's ratings plunge; should Democrats start worrying about 2022 midterm elections?

Democrats could lose control of the Senate long before the 2022 midterms

joe biden ap US President Joe Biden | AP

With images of anguished Afghan citizens broadcast on televisions and news websites every day since the US began actively withdrawing its final personnel from Afghanistan, President Joe Biden faced a mounting wave of criticism for his decision to pull out—a tide that has now reflected in his approval rating, with the latest numbers revealing that his detractors now outnumber his supporters.

Polls from Ipsos, Emerson College, YouGov, Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research and ABC News/The Washington Post (compiled by Five Thirty-Eight) all show that Biden’s disapproval rate outpaces his approval rate—and this transition happened after Kabul fell to the Taliban. The Marist National Poll shows Biden’s approval dropping six points, with 61 per cent of adults polled disapproving of how he handled the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Biden's approval rating has fallen to a new low of 43 per cent, the lowest since he took office. 71 per cent of Americans say that the United States' role was a "failure". Those who disapproved of his foreign policy included 66 per cent of Democrats, a large majority, hinting at a major dissent among Biden's own party colleagues.

Presidential approval ratings often drop following the first few months in office—the so-called “honeymoon” period. But Biden’s five-six point drop between August 16-30 is among the steepest fortnightly dips in recent history.

Needless to say, Afghanistan will likely remain an issue when midterm elections are held in November, 2022—putting 435 seats in the House of Representatives of 34 seats in the Senate up for grabs. To say these elections are crucial for Democrats is an understatement—the loss of even a single Senate seat could end their ability to overcome tie-breakers with the Vice President’s vote (Democrats and Republicans have a 50/50 split of the Senate—but Harris can add her tie-breaking vote to swing things in favour of the Democrats).

Historically, only two incumbent US presidents since 1935 have seen their party’s standing improve in the midterms following their election.

However, Biden will encounter political challenges long before 2022. Calls for the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom have led to a special recall election on September 14: Voters have to vote on whether Newsom will be recalled, and who his replacement will be. Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder is reportedly among the forerunners, and is popular among Republicans for his anti-vaccine views.

However, the real danger lies in the Senate: With questions about 88-year-old Dianne Feinstein’s health and mental acuity, there is a possibility that she may either step down or be forced to retire. And if a Republican governor is elected in California, that person would have the ability to nominate Feinstein’s replacement. With just a single additional Senate member, Republicans would regain control of the Senate—and then be able to potentially block most Democrat moves until the 2022 midterms.

No wonder then that Biden will be campaigning for Gavin Newsom in California.

But even if the Democrats can preserve their historic control of both House and Senate till the midterms, there is no guarantee that they can retain either. As the Republican Party ousts those who do not toe Trump’s line—and Senators like Roy Blunt, Richard Burr, Rob Portman, Richard Shelby and Pat Toomy (who have either voted to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment trial or supported the bipartisan infrastructure bill that die-hard Trump supporters abjectly rejected) set to retire next year—the party is likely to grow far more Trumpian.

At the other end of the aisle, Democrat voters may band together in response to Texas’s strict anti-abortion laws that ban most avenues for abortion in the state. Seen as the biggest challenge yet to the Roe vs Wade judgement, the move in Texas may mobilise women voters against Republicans. Democrats have vowed to protect abortion rights, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi saying they will work on a legislation that enshrines the right to an abortion into federal law.

Nonetheless, there are over 400 days left till November of 2022—several eternities in American politics. Whether that period will reflect the values of a post-COVID future, or a time of third and fourth vaccines jabs that are growing increasingly unpopular among right-wing voters, or if it reflects the reality of a Taliban government completing a year in power (or a collapse of the same), will all affect the Democrats’ prospects.

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