With India and South Africa having secured two semifinal slots, the fight for the remaining two slots has intensified. Australia, on 10 points with two games in hand, are clear favourites to grab the third spot, leaving Afghanistan, Pakistan and New Zealand to battle it out for the last berth.
Although Sri Lanka (4 points) and the Netherlands (4 points) also remain in the chase, the three others on wight points remain clear favourites to make the cut. Here is what the qualification scenario looks like for the three teams as things stand.
New Zealand [8 Points/NRR: +0.389] The DLS result going in favour of Pakistan at Bengaluru have hurt the Kiwis badly. Kane Williamson's side got one contest left -- against Sri Lanka. The objective is to win by a big margin and close the group stage campaign with 10 points. However, victory over the Asian side is no guarantee that they will progress as a lot depends on how Afghanistan and Pakistan fare in games to come. Ideally, New Zealand would want them to lose their remaining games.
Interestingly, it is not the end of the road for New Zealand if they go down against Sri Lanka man. According to reports, they will have a slender chance to progress even then if Pakistan (8 points), Afghanistan (8 points) and the Netherlands (4 points) lose by a big margin.
Pakistan [8 Points/NRR: +0.336] Pakistan is up against defending champions England, who are reeling at 10th in the table. The Green Shirts will look to register a huge win so that a superior Net Run Rate (NRR) will ensure their advance even if New Zealand also emerge victorious in their last group stage game.
Even with 10 points, Pakistan could finish fifth if New Zealand beat Sri Lanka and finished with a better NRR. Also, Afghanistan winning both their remaining fixtures is bad news for Pakistan.
Also, if England manage to beat them, Pakistan's future will depend on how New Zealand, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and the Netherlands fared in their respective contests.
Afghanistan [8 Points/NRR: -0.330] Afghanistan have two games in hand. They are up against South Africa and Australia -- the teams standing second and third in the point table. If they manage to win both games, Afghanistan will play in the semifinals as the second Asian team after India.
Unfortunately for Afghanistan, they have the worst NRR among the three teams with 8 points. Thus, there is no guarantee that they will progress even if they win one of the two games. If they end up losing one, they will need New Zealand and Pakistan to lose their respective games by huge margins so that they can still qualify sans the NRR coming into the picture.
