In 2015, way before net-zero became an emission target in green circles, India proposed the idea of solar rich countries getting together to harness more energy from the sun. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's idea at the Conference of Parties meeting in Paris was seconded by the host nation. Paris was grateful to Modi for having stepped down the Indian demand for having the phrase "historical responsibility" in the Paris Accord. The developed West did not want this guilt and responsibility laid out in print, and the treaty was almost collapsing before India agreed to remove the phrase. In return, France backed the proposal and thus was born the International Solar Alliance (ISA), the first multilateral organisation to be headquartered in India.
In the years that followed, country after country joined in. There are 124 onboard, of which 101 have already ratified the ISA Framework Agreement. Though initially proposed as a grouping of countries between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, many of the developed countries of the temperate north have joined in. They might not have the requisite solar power, but they know a trick or two about harnessing it better than the others. They also have the money to go with the technology.
China is not part of the ISA, yet. This is ironic as China is the world leader in the manufacturing of both solar panels and photovoltaic batteries. There is no way, under present circumstances, that the solar dreams of the world can march on without China. India learnt this the hard way last year, when, in nationalistic fervour after the Galwan clash, it decided to go Atmanirbhar and choke a bit of the Chinese exports. Solar energy was totally reliant on the import of cells and panels. At best, even when units in India were assembling the panels, the cells and chips were still imported. Even if India ups its manufacture, it is not likely that it will become the alternate provider for solar plants across the world, especially in the countries where it has developmental diplomacy.
China is marching ahead with its projects, roads, ports, and of course now even solar projects. A recent project in Sri Lanka was cancelled because a third party, read India, objected, citing security concerns. However, the same Chinese firm has reportedly signed a hybrid solar-diesel power production plant in the Maldives, too. This project, might, or might not go forward. However, China is keen on lighting up the Indian Ocean lands with sunlight. Given that India is the headquarters of the ISA, and China is not on board, this is likely to be another area of competition.
India was initially very keen to get China to join the ISA. Russia is not a member either, and India is trying for that, too. However, since 2015, a lot has happened in regional geopolitics. India has become a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which China clearly feels is targeted against it. China believes the western world's focus on the Indo-Pacific is to keep certain countries out of the region.
China is likely to go ahead with setting up such hybrid energy plants in Africa, where the need for power is high. And despite all warnings of debt traps, many nations will look at the Chinese proposals positively. Can India up the Chinese solar aggression? It certainly has the heft of the developed world behind it. But technology and finances are slow to emerge, something that COP26 highlighted.
In an ideal world, all parties would work together towards a net-zero goal. The world is far from ideal. And competition is likely to continue in this area in the years to come.
