The Trump administration has formally approved a sweeping, 30-year civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia. Worth tens of billions of dollars, the pact is designed to offer American firms a leading role in building the kingdom's nuclear infrastructure, while locking out rival bidders. 

Known officially as a "123 Agreement", after Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act of 1954, the document will soon be signed by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman. Yet the deal could become highly contentious, marking a clear break from the nonproliferation safeguards long upheld by previous administrations and reigniting fears of a nuclear arms race in an already volatile Middle East.

Chief among the objections raised by lawmakers and arms control experts is that the agreement omits the so-called "Gold Standard" of nuclear nonproliferation, which bars a country outright from enriching uranium or reprocessing spent fuel, both crucial steps on the road to a nuclear weapon. When Washington struck a comparable 123 Agreement with the neighbouring UAE, which took effect in 2009, Abu Dhabi agreed to permanently forgo producing its own fuel, ruling out the infrastructure needed to build a bomb.

This new pact takes a markedly different course. Trump has made substantial concessions to Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Under the terms agreed, Saudi Arabia could be allowed to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium on its own territory, once a joint US-Saudi study has assessed the economics of domestic fuel production. One provision even opens the door for American companies to construct a uranium enrichment plant inside the kingdom, should that review deem it worthwhile.

The agreement also leaves out the "Additional Protocol", which would have given the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency sweeping powers of oversight, including snap inspections of undeclared sites. Instead, Washington has accepted terms that could restrict international inspectors' access to locations suspected of diverting fuel towards weapons work. Secretary Wright says the deal upholds robust nonproliferation standards and offers a legal framework for cooperation without requiring the transfer of sensitive technology, but experts counter that allowing centrifuges to spin on Saudi soil inevitably raises the risk of weaponisation. The administration argues that close joint oversight of the programme will prevent any slide towards weapons development.

Both the timing and shape of the deal are closely bound up with wider regional tensions and shifting diplomacy. Strategically, it is meant to draw the US and Saudi Arabia closer together at a moment when the war with Iran has placed real strain on that relationship. The US and Israel have already gone to war against Iran, driven partly by the aim of dismantling Tehran's capacity to build nuclear weapons. Trump has also unlinked this agreement from an earlier Biden-era plan, which had tied US-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation to Riyadh recognising Israel diplomatically. After the Hamas attacks on Israel of October 2023, the prospects for Saudi recognition faded, and Trump has since dropped that condition altogether. On the economic front, the administration regards the deal as a considerable windfall, one that promises to pump billions of dollars into America's nuclear sector.

Despite the economic advantages, lawmakers from both parties, nonproliferation specialists and Israeli officials have voiced concerns over the risk of a regional arms race. MbS has said more than once that, should Iran acquire a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia would follow suit without delay. Since uranium enrichment is a key stepping stone towards weapons capability, analysts worry this deal hands the kingdom the basic tools to build a nuclear arsenal quickly, should it ever choose to.

Recent military developments have only deepened those concerns. Saudi Arabia has signed a mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan, coming in the wake of Israel's strike on Hamas officials in Qatar. Following that pact, Pakistan's defence minister issued a pointed warning, widely read as aimed at Israel, that Islamabad's nuclear programme would be "made available" to Saudi Arabia if the need arose.

The administration intends to submit the agreement to Congress within days. Under the Atomic Energy Act, lawmakers will then have a continuous 90-day window to review it. Opposition is expected to be intense, but blocking the deal outright will prove no easy task. Doing so would require Congress to pass a joint resolution of disapproval and muster a two-thirds, veto-proof majority to overturn what would almost certainly be a presidential veto. Despite the absence of key nonproliferation safeguards, the agreement looks likely to go through and to reshape the nuclear landscape of the Middle East for years to come.

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