The current escalation in the Middle East has once again brought the complex relationship between Iran and the Gulf Arab states to the forefront of regional geopolitics. The conflict intensified after large-scale military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian targets in February 2026, triggering retaliatory missile and drone attacks by Iran across the region. Iran’s response targeted Israel, the American military facilities, and strategic infrastructure in several Gulf states, heightening fears of a wider regional conflict. In this volatile context, the Gulf monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, find themselves caught between their security partnerships with the United States and the neighbouring Shi’a state i.e., Iran. The crisis illustrates both the enduring structural rivalry between Iran and the Gulf states, and the strategic dilemma faced by Gulf regimes attempting to avoid direct involvement in this regional confrontation.
The strained relations between Iran and the Gulf states are a result of the historical experiences, ideological, and geopolitical rivalries. This ideological divide between Iran and Gulf monarchies due to the Iranian Revolution (1979) often framed through the lens of Shi’a-Sunni or sectarian competition, further escalated by the geopolitical competition for influence across the Middle Eastern region. Over the past two decades, this rivalry has manifested in several proxy conflicts, including in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. This has emerged as a direct challenge to their security and regional influence. At the same time, Gulf monarchies have sought to counter Iranian influence through alliances with Western powers and through support for opposing actors in regional conflicts. Despite these hostilities, the regional environment began to shift in the early 2020s. Diplomatic normalisation efforts, including the rapprochement facilitated by China between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, suggested the possibility of a gradual de-escalation in Gulf–Iranian relations. However, the current crisis has exposed the fragility of this détente and demonstrated that the structural drivers of rivalry remain unresolved.
The Gulf States’ strategic dilemma
The ongoing escalation has placed the Gulf states in an extremely complicated situation. On one hand, most Gulf monarchies maintain strong security partnerships with the United States and host American military bases. On the other hand, their economic and strategic interests depend on avoiding a direct confrontation with Iran. Iranian missile and drone strikes have already targeted infrastructure and facilities in several Gulf states, including attacks linked to American bases and economic hubs. These strikes have intensified concerns about the vulnerability of Gulf cities and critical infrastructure.
Yet Gulf states have largely avoided openly joining the conflict. Regional leaders recognise that direct involvement could transform the crisis into an unrestrained regional war, exposing their energy infrastructure, shipping routes, and urban centres to Iranian retaliation. However, the Gulf states have tried for coordinated responses primarily focused on protecting national sovereignty while avoiding escalation. This strategic caution also reflects the asymmetry of geography wherein Iran is a large state with extensive missile capabilities while Gulf states—despite their advanced militaries—remain vulnerable due to their proximity and concentration of economic assets.
Perhaps the most immediate impact of the current crisis lies in the economic and energy domains. The Persian Gulf is the central artery of the global oil market, and any disruption in the region has profound global implications. The escalation has already increased the oil prices, reflecting fears that the conflict could disrupt energy exports. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil shipments pass has become a focal point of concern as Iranian forces threaten Western shipping and maritime traffic. For the Gulf monarchies, whose economic diversification programs still rely heavily on hydrocarbon revenues, prolonged instability poses serious risks. Vision-driven transformation agendas require stable regional conditions and sustained investor confidence.
De-escalation and hedging
In response to these pressures, Gulf states appear to be pursuing a strategy of cautious hedging. Rather than aligning fully with one side of the conflict, they are attempting to maintain diplomatic channels with all major actors while strengthening their defensive capabilities. Several Gulf states like Oman and Qatar have historically played mediating roles between Iran and the Western powers. In the current crisis, these states may once again try to facilitate de-escalation, particularly given their interest in preserving regional stability and protecting energy flows. At the same time, Gulf monarchies continue to rely on external security guarantees from the United States and other Western partners. The presence of American military bases across the Gulf provides deterrence against Iranian aggression but also increases the risk that Gulf territory could become a theatre for a wider conflict.
Implications for the regional order
The evolving crisis may reshape the regional security architecture of the Middle Eastern region. If the conflict escalates further, the Gulf states may be forced to reconsider their security arrangements and explore new forms of regional collective defence. At the same time, the crisis underscores the growing multipolarity of Middle Eastern geopolitics. External powers—including China and Russia have increasingly become involved in regional diplomacy, reflecting broader shifts in global power dynamics.
However, the relationship between Iran and the Gulf states remains one of competitive coexistence. While the current escalation has intensified tensions, neither side appears eager for a full-scale regional escalation. The Gulf monarchies seek stability and economic growth, while Iran, despite its confrontational posture, also faces significant economic and political constraints. For the Gulf states, the challenge lies in balancing their security partnerships with the West while maintaining a degree of strategic autonomy in dealing with Iran. In case the conflict escalates, their ability to navigate this delicate balance will play a decisive role in shaping the future stability of the Gulf region and the broader Middle Eastern order.
The author is an Assistant Professor at Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (AIDSS), Amity University, NOIDA.
