BJP chief Nitin Nabin chose western Uttar Pradesh for his region-specific organisational tour as the state heads to polls in a few months. The local party unit welcomed him with three dozen bulldozers lined up outside Meerut. This sent out a message that the party firmly backed the state government's instant bulldozer justice, and that it would get a renewed push if voted back to power, thus firmly putting focus on maintaining law and order.
Nabin's message to the party and the electorate was to remind them of the times before 2017. He spoke about law and order, expressways, airports, jobs, welfare schemes and new investments. He said a state once associated with crime and mafia was now being identified with development and infrastructure.
He also attacked the Congress and the Samajwadi Party for what he described as dynastic and divisive politics. Referring to the SP's campaign in the state, Nabin accused the opposition of trying to divide Uttar Pradesh and asked BJP workers to prevent such politics from returning in 2027. He also attacked Rahul Gandhi over his outreach to students, asking whether he had visited young people in Amethi and listened to their concerns.
But for the party organisation, the message was rooted in strategy: strengthen every booth and take government schemes to voters to draw maximum benefit ahead of the polls.
The region is crucial for the party. Western UP has 71 Assembly seats, and the BJP managed to win 41 seats in 2022, a drop of 13 seats from the previous polls.
The region has traditionally been shaped by Jat, Muslim, Dalit and farmer politics. The farm protests changed the BJP's relationship with sections of the Jat community. Initially, the SP and RLD benefited from this shift. However, the political equation has changed since then. Jayant Chaudhary's RLD is now part of the NDA and will contest the next election alongside the BJP. The BJP hopes the alliance will help bring back some of the Jat support it lost in 2022. Both the BJP and RLD contested together during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav is instead relying on his PDA formula: Pichhda, Dalit and Alpsankhyak. Western UP will be an important test of this strategy. The question is whether the SP can retain its Muslim and backward-caste support while also attracting Jat voters.
This is also where Asaduddin Owaisi becomes relevant. He has repeatedly offered an alliance to Akhilesh Yadav, arguing that opposition parties should work together to prevent the BJP from returning to power. Akhilesh, predictably, has so far shown no interest. How can an established party in the state cede its support base to a party based outside the state? That appears to be the SP's thinking.
AIMIM and the SP are competing for many of the same Muslim voters. An alliance, however far-fetched the idea may be, could consolidate that vote in some seats, but it could also strengthen Owaisi's own political presence. If AIMIM contests separately in Muslim-heavy constituencies, even a relatively small vote share could divide the opposition vote and benefit the BJP. In 2022, AIMIM contested 95 seats but could not win any. However, it managed to dent the SP's chances in several seats with a sizeable Muslim population.
The bigger problem for the SP would be that it could be painted as a Muslim party, and the resulting counter-polarisation could directly benefit the BJP. Congress, too, would want to steer clear of any association with Owaisi.
For the BJP, as is clear from the bulldozer welcome, development and law and order are the twin issues with which it is seeking votes again for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
Another factor in western UP will be the Dalit vote, as the community has a significant presence in the region. The BSP has in the past tried to achieve Muslim-Dalit consolidation to win seats. However, the SP is looking at a Yadav-Muslim-Dalit combination. For the BJP, Jats and Dalits play a crucial role and would be actively wooed.
Western UP, due to its proximity to the national capital, is likely to remain politically active as the state moves into the poll season.
