The BJP is trying to increase its parliamentary numbers with an eye on reintroducing the Constitution Amendment Bills on women's reservation and delimitation that were defeated during a special session in April.
The government's proposal to expand the Lok Sabha from 543 to 850 seats and operationalise the women's reservation law fell short by 54 votes during voting in the Lok Sabha on 17 April. The bill received 298 votes in favour and 230 against, out of 528 members present and voting, well below the two-thirds majority of 352 votes required for passage.
Since then, the political arithmetic has begun to shift in the ruling party's favour, boosted by the defeat of Trinamool Congress in the West Bengal assembly elections.
Now, 20 of the TMC's 28 Lok Sabha MPs have decided to support the BJP-led NDA, with Lok Sabha chief whip Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar leading the dissident group.
The TMC was impacted in the Rajya Sabha too. Veteran TMC leader Sukhendu Sekhar Ray resigned from the Upper House, followed days later by Sushmita Dev, who had joined the TMC from the Congress a few years ago. Dev, whose political base remains in Assam, subsequently met Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, prompting speculation that she could eventually join the BJP.
Another Rajya Sabha MP, Prakash Chik Baraik, resigned from the Upper House as well as the party on Thursday.
The departures from opposition parties — first from the AAP's Rajya Sabha ranks and now from the TMC — help the BJP in reducing the opposition's numbers and weakening its effective strength in the Upper House and Lok Sabha. Every resignation or shift from the opposition's parliamentary ranks removes a potential vote against the contentious delimitation bill.
The buzz around reworking the delimitation bill is already building, where the government may put the formula of delimitation of seats within the text of the bill, unlike last time when the Opposition members had refused to take the government's word. If this happens, then some of the Opposition parties will be left with no choice but to support the women's reservation bill, which comes entwined with the delimitation exercise.
There is also buzz on whether the DMK might abstain rather than actively oppose the legislation if it is reintroduced. There have been indications that the party, facing a changed political landscape in Tamil Nadu following the emergence of Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) and growing pressure on the traditional Dravidian parties, may examine the contents of a revised bill before taking a formal position.
The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) could also face renewed strain as the BJP seeks support for major constitutional and legislative measures in Parliament. Beyond the principal alliances, there remains an unaligned bloc that includes MPs from the Biju Janata Dal and the YSR Congress Party, whom the government would again engage.
A recent working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister gave its suggestions on the delimitation formula. The paper argues that the median Lok Sabha constituency had 1.82 million electors in 2024, while the largest exceeded 3.2 million. It estimates that a redrawn House could increase national voter turnout by up to 2.3 percentage points, equivalent to roughly 22.8 million additional voters.
The study estimates that the first delimitation exercise after the constitutional freeze ends could involve the addition of around 281 Lok Sabha seats, expanding the House from 543 to approximately 824 members.
Using electoral data from 2,171 constituency-level contests across the four general elections since 2009, the EAC paper's preferred scenario recommends splitting 170 constituencies, comprising 59 two-way and 111 three-way splits. The study identifies urbanisation as the single largest factor associated with lower turnout, while tribal-majority constituencies have emerged as some of the highest-turnout seats in the country. One of its more notable conclusions is that oversized constituencies are now predominantly an urban problem — a reality that cuts to the heart of how India's cities are represented in Parliament.
The government had linked the women's reservation law, already passed, which reserves one-third of seats for women, to delimitation based on the 2011 census figures, when the fresh census is already underway. Opposition parties argue that women's reservation was used to give backdoor entry to the delimitation exercise without proper consultation. They argue that women's reservation should be delinked from delimitation so that it can be implemented in the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.
Whether the government chooses to bring the bill back during the monsoon session will depend on the kind of numbers it has gathered. The Bengal results have given it a big boost.
