The BJP's stellar performance with a projected 200-seat win in West Bengal's 294-seat Assembly is one of the major highlights of the Today's Chanakya exit polls, released on Thursday.
According to the pollster, the BJP is estimated to get 181-203 seats—easily crossing the majority mark of 148 seats—while the incumbent TMC is expected to get 89-111 seats, and only 0-4 seats have been allocated for the others.
In terms of vote shares, this has translated into about 48 per cent for the BJP, 38 per cent for the TMC, and a major 14 per cent for all the other parties. The pollster also pointed out that its survey had a 3 per cent margin of error either way.
In terms of caste, the exit poll also showed that the TMC had significantly mobilised the Muslim vote (71 per cent), while the BJP had managed to collectively mobilise SC (67 per cent), ST (61 per cent), and OBC (53 per cent) voters more.
Here are the pollster's predictions for the other places in the fray:
Tamil Nadu
Today's Chanakya also predicted a sweep for the DMK-led SPA alliance looking to retain power in the state, claiming that it would get 114-136 seats against a majority mark of 118 seats in the state's 234-seat Assembly.
However, instead of the AIADMK alliance as its primary competitor, the pollster has predicted it will be the TVK instead, which is estimated to get 52-74 seats in the state. The AIADMK alliance has been projected to get 34-56 seats, while 0-2 seats have been given for the others.
Indeed, this has also reflected in the razor-thin differences in vote shares, with the DMK+ coming out on top with 39 per cent, but the TVK at a close second with 30 per cent and the AIADMK+ with 27 per cent. The others are projected to get a 4 per cent vote share.
In terms of caste, all three alliances are more or less evenly matched for the BC and MBC vote shares. However, the DMK+ is projected to influence a significant chunk of the SC, Muslim, and Christian voter bases in the state, closely followed by the TVK. The AIADMK+ falters behind in vote shares here.
Kerala
No sweeps have been predicted in Kerala, with the exit poll showing the UDF alliance edging over the LDF with 60-78 seats as compared to the latter's projected 55-73 seats. The BJP-led alliance gets only 3-11 seats, while the others in the fray have been estimated to get 0-1.
This could mean a possible hung assembly in Kerala, with the BJP-led NDA emerging as a key player going forward.
It also shows a significant vote share of 20 per cent for the BJP+, while the UDF and LDF have been projected with 40 per cent and 38 per cent respectively.
In terms of caste, while the pollster shows a close battle between all three alliances for the Ezhava voter base, it also estimates that the UDF could significantly pull Muslim and Christian voters, while the LDF is projected to have more power over Ezhava and SC voters.
Assam
Today's Chanakya again shows a sweep for the incumbent BJP-led alliance in Assam, which is projected to get a whopping 93-111 seats, while the Congress-led alliance is estimated to get just 14-32 seats, with 0-2 seats for the others.
However, it also pointed out that the Congress+ has retained a significant vote share of 38 per cent against the NDA alliance's 50 per cent. The others in the fray are estimated to pull about 12 per cent of the vote share.
In terms of caste, it also shows that while the Congress-led alliance in the state is projected to influence the Muslim voters (66 per cent), the NDA alliance is estimated to win over SC (68 per cent), ST (63 per cent), and OBC (69 per cent) voters.
