Majority of the exit polls have given the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) a clean sweep in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election, while one exit poll predicts a majority for Trinamool Congress (TMC) while some exit polls project a neck-to-neck fight. Can this data be relied upon?
“In this game of prediction, it is very difficult to reach a definite conclusion that exit polls are right and wrong about the other. Having said that, exit polls have a methodology, depends on what were framed, how people responded to the questions, what was the assessment?” said senior journalist Shikha Mukherjee who has been covering elections since the Left Front regime in the state. Mukherjee adds that it has been a tough fight because BJP has been the main opposition for five years and has worked single-mindedly to win. The TMC too has been working during this period.
“Don't forget the bogus exit polls of 2021 and 2024. It has implications for stock market manipulations and the gambling market. There are methodological problems too,” said Professsor Maidul Islam, a political science professor at the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences.
Political analyst Udayan Bandhyopadhyay believes it is tough to rely on exit poll analysis. “These are not exit polls, these are post poll analysis. I do not rely on them because they do not come true in many cases in West Bengal and other parts of the country, especially after 2024 Lok Sabha elections,” said Udayan Bandyopadhyay. He also says exit poll firms are not disclosing the methodology.
Political science professor Zaad Mehmood of Presidency University believes that exit polls fail more than they succeed. “The exits polls are very fractured. The vote shares are too close to call. If the margin of error in survey is 3 per cent, then vote shares are too close to call. Converting the vote shares, into seats is difficult,” explains Prof. Zaad Mehmood.
The Exit Polls Game
2021 Assembly Elections Exit Polls
India Today predicted 143 seats for TMC and 147 for BJP.
ABP News predicted 158 seats for TMC and 115 for BJP
CNN News18 predicted 162 seats for TMC and 115 seats for BJP
The actual results were 215 seats for TMC and 77 seats for BJP, 1 seat for Indian Secular Front (ISF).
2026 Assembly Elections Exit Polls
People Pulse predicts 185 seats to TMC, 104 seats to BJP. Others 6 seats.
P-Marq predicts 128 seats to TMC and 162 seats to BJP. Others 4 seats.
JVC predicts 142 seats to TMC and 150 seats to BJP. Others 2 seats.
Chanakya predicts 135 seats to TMC and 155 seats to BJP. Others 5 seats.
Matrize predicts 133 seats to TMC and 154 seats to BJP. Others 7 seats.
A macro look at the ground situation
The voter turnout in the first phase of elections is 91.66 per cent and 93.19 per cent in the second phase. The overall voter turnout is around 92.47 per cent. There are various factors for a high voter turnout says the Election Commission (EC). One being several name deletions from the Absent, Shifted, Dead and Deleted(ASDD) list of Special Intensive Revision (SIR). There are almost 90 lakh deletions of the SIR since the beginning of the exercise in 2025, bringing the electorate from 7.6 crore in the 2025 voter list to 6.8 crore in the 2026 voter list post SIR. This itself signals a high voter turnout.
The second factor is people fearing their names being deleted from the voter list in future elections and hence casting their vote, travelling from outside the state and country too. The third factor is an anti-incumbency wave that objects to the ruling establishment’s corruption, lack of industry and job creation and women safety with the RG Kar government hospital rape case in 2024. A higher voter turnout was also seen in 2011 during the anti-incumbency wave ousting Left Front after 34 years and ushering in TMC based on the anti-land acquisition drive in Singur and Nandigram that Mamata Banerjee’s party used to their advantage.
In a video message on social media, Mamata on Thursday said that exit poll predictions in 2021 and 2024 went wrong. “No matter what BJP thinks, they can keep thinking. Do false campaigning. Remember, you will get the answer on May 4. Wait until then,” said Mamata Banerjee.
The TMC is not taking chances with over-confidence while the BJP is confident of wresting power from Mamata’s turf.
