When the local body election results came out on Saturday, they jolted both the LDF and the UDF—for opposite reasons. The LDF was shaken by a dramatic collapse, while the UDF was surprised by the sheer scale of its over-performance.
In 2020, Kerala had witnessed a red wave. Recovering from its rout in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M)-led LDF swept 11 of the 14 district panchayats and five of the six corporations. It went on to capture more than 500 grama panchayats and over 100 block panchayats. The UDF, by contrast, was reduced to just one corporation, three district panchayats, fewer than 40 block panchayats, and under 350 grama panchayats. The BJP was a marginal presence, winning only 19 grama panchayats and two municipalities.
Cut to 2025, and the picture is almost inverted. The UDF has delivered one of its strongest-ever performances in local body elections, winning over 500 grama panchayats, close to 80 block panchayats, seven district panchayats, and 54 municipalities. It has also captured four of the six corporations. Traditionally, results in district panchayats, municipalities, and corporations are read as trend indicators for Assembly elections held within months. If this strong anti-incumbency mood is sustained, the UDF would be well placed for a decisive victory in the upcoming Assembly polls.
Yet the headline is not just the UDF surge. In urban centres, the BJP is rapidly expanding its footprint and has emerged—alongside the UDF—as a key beneficiary of anti-incumbency votes.
The BJP has won 26 grama panchayats, two municipalities, and one corporation. It has secured around 1,500 grama panchayat wards, over 50 block panchayat wards, 324 municipal wards, and 91 corporation wards. The party is set to govern the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, along with the Palakkad and Tripunithura municipalities. In Palakkad, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 25 seats; in Tripunithura, it won 21. The party crossed into double digits in Kodungallur (18), Varkala (10), Shornur (12), and Ottapalam (12).
Equally significant is the fact that the NDA finished second in several municipalities that were once impregnable fortresses of the two fronts. In Thodupuzha, the NDA overtook the LDF to become the main opposition with nine seats. In Attingal, it tied with the UDF at seven seats. In Varkala, the NDA’s 10 seats pushed the UDF to third place. In Chengannur, the NDA finished second with six seats, relegating the LDF—now with just five—to third. In Mavelikkara, the NDA emerged as the main opposition with eight seats, while the LDF slipped to third with four. The BJP also finished second in Ettumanoor with six seats and, in Ernakulam district, overtook the LDF to secure second place in Aluva, even as it gained control of Tripunithura. Similar second-place finishes were recorded in Kodungallur, Shornur, Ottapalam, Tarur, and Kasaragod.
Underlying these shifts is a deeper churn within the LDF’s social base. The pattern of Ezhava vote leakage from the CPI(M)-led Left—visible in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as well—appears to have persisted and intensified in the 2025 local body polls. Internal CPI(M) assessments had flagged a steady rightward drift of traditional Ezhava votes, long a core Left constituency, towards the BJP-led NDA. This was attributed to perceptions of minority appeasement and the growing influence of SNDP Yogam leaders critical of the Left.
In response, the CPI(M) attempted course corrections over the past year—reviving a sharper stance against minority communalism and drawing closer to outspoken SNDP leader Vellapally Nadesan, despite his controversial and often communally charged rhetoric. The local body election results, however, suggest these efforts have fallen short. Muslim minority consolidation against the CPI(M) appears to have intensified, even as leakage within the Ezhava vote base continues. In the current trend, a portion of this leaked vote appears to have gone towards the UDF, while the rest has flowed to the BJP.
It is also notable that the BJP has improved its performance in areas with a significant Christian demographic. In Kottayam district, for instance, the BJP captured power in three panchayats—Aymanam, Kidangoor, and Poonjar Thekkekara—and finished second in Chirakkadavu panchayat. In 2020, the party had just one panchayat in the district. Retaining these gains in the Assembly elections, however, will be challenging, as these remain fluid and non-aligned votes.
The local body election results also suggest that, alongside strong anti-incumbency sentiments, the CPI(M) suffered a sharp backlash over the Sabarimala gold theft controversy. The episode triggered powerful feelings of “desecration” and “betrayal” among Ayyappa devotees, particularly in Hindu-majority areas dominated by Ezhava and Nair communities. Both the UDF and the BJP aggressively framed the issue as evidence of the LDF’s dismissive attitude towards faith and governance failures.
The LDF, meanwhile, attempted to shift the narrative by foregrounding sexual allegations against former Congress MLA Rahul Mamkootathil. However, the UDF’s decision to oust Mamkootathil—despite internal confusion within the Congress—appears to have reinforced a perception of decisiveness and moral clarity, yielding electoral dividends in the crucial days leading up to the polls.
It is clear that the UDF will seek to sustain this momentum and return to power, even though persistent infighting within the Congress could still undermine its prospects. The CPI(M), for its part, has announced a course correction—but with barely three months in hand, the window for recovery is narrow. The BJP, meanwhile, will focus on engineering a comeback to the Kerala Legislative Assembly, though it must first consolidate and retain the gains it has made so far.
