There was growing buzz that Jharkhand Mukti Morcha chief and Chief Minister Hemant Soren might break ties with the Congress and move towards the BJP, especially after his reported meeting with a senior BJP leader in Delhi last week. Although the media chatter has since quietened, sources indicate that the JMM is weighing the possibility of aligning with the BJP in order to secure smoother financial coordination with the Centre ruled by the saffron party, and push ahead with its developmental promises to the people of the state.
However, a section of political observers believes the JMM may find it difficult to walk away easily from its natural allies and stitch up an alliance with the BJP, primarily because of its core vote base. The party draws significant support from Muslims and Christians, who form a crucial part of Jharkhand’s electorate. Notably, the state has around 15 per cent Muslims and over 4 per cent Christians.
FROM THE MAGAZINE | Before 2019, the #BJP government was there, and they used to call it a double-engine sarkar. If people were satisfied, why did they choose Hemant ji and the #INDIAbloc parties?"- Kalpana Soren,@JmmJharkhand leader
— THE WEEK (@TheWeekLive) May 22, 2024
Read the story by @SoniMishra20… pic.twitter.com/oPPkBM7O1v
Yet another section of analysts believe that the JMM may ultimately be forced to compromise due to its financial constraints and pressure building up to deliver on its promises to the people. A political analyst noted, “Hemant Soren wants to survive, and for that he needs support from the Centre. To get that support, he may have to align with them.”
If an opportunist alliance is in the offing, a section believes it may also not last long as JMM can take no chances of losing its core electorate. “If his electorate is something he (Soren) wants to retain, he can just break the alliance with the BJP before the next assembly elections and then try to win back his electorate. Regional parties often switch sides and still manage to convince their voters, just the way Nitish Kumar has been doing it,” said the analyst.
According to sources, the JMM and BJP may be inching towards a deal or understanding, the contours of which are not clear yet, and the parties may be looking for an appropriate time to stitch the same. All eyes are on whether the state is headed for a political change after the Parliament winter session is over.
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- Amid JMM-BJP alliance rumours, Congress says INDIA bloc 'rock-solid' in Jharkhand
- Hemant Soren’s Delhi trip fuels JMM-BJP alliance buzz. Is Congress heading for a split in Jharkhand?
- Bypoll results: Opposition claims Mizoram's Dampa, Champai Soren's son trails in Jharkhand's Ghatshila
The episode has also triggered a wave of speculation in political circles. It has unsettled a section of Congress legislators, with some claiming that a few MLAs may be worried about their political fortunes if the winds change.
Talking to THE WEEK, a top leader in the state argued that there is “not much benefit for the JMM in allying with the BJP”. According to him, Soren knows he won’t enjoy the same freedom there as he currently does with the Congress. “He (Soren) may rather try to capitalise on the sentiment and try to increase his flock if more MLAs are keen to join him from Congress,” the leader said, adding that Soren is still upset over Bihar, where the RJD–Congress alliance did not reciprocate the gesture of seat-sharing. The JMM, he said, had sacrificed some seats in Jharkhand to accommodate the RJD.
Such a move could also suit the BJP and give it fodder against the ruling coalition, sources said.
Another senior Congress leader said, “The JMM has been holding meetings to test the waters, but that does not necessarily mean anything can influence the decision at the top. Only a handful of senior leaders in both the JMM and the BJP would actually know what is happening. However, the way things have unfolded within the JMM clearly suggests that they are preparing for some changes.”
According to Congress leaders, there is also pressure of cases slapped against Soren by central agencies. A section argues that the alliance remains solid as it was in November 2024 when the assembly elections were held.
Notably, when the media was abuzz with the reports, Congress general secretary (organisation) publicly clarified on social media that the JMM–Congress alliance remains “rock-solid”. However, there was no such statement from the JMM camp keeping ambiguity on the matter alive.
In a post on X, K.C. Venugopal said that he had spoken to the chief minister and asserted the stability of the alliance in the state. "Let there be no doubts, our INDIA alliance in Jharkhand is rock-solid, cohesive, and fully committed to advancing people-centric welfare policies that reflect the aspirations of every citizen of Jharkhand...."
Only time will tell whether Jharkhand will witness a Nitish Kumar-style switch or the JMM will break away from the Congress or whether the party will stand its ground and continue with the alliance.
