Odisha bypolls: Naveen Patnaik's BJD faces crisis as Nuapada byelection elevates BJP and Congress

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s record victory in Odisha's Nuapada assembly seat byelection, held on November 11, is a stark contrast to its third-place finish in the 2024 general election. This surprise win for the ruling party has significantly strengthened Chief Minister Mohan Chandra Majhi’s position.

After the BJP secured its first independent victory in Odisha last year, ending Biju Janata Dal (BJD) leader Naveen Patnaik’s record 24-year tenure, the party leadership appointed Majhi, a tribal leader, as Chief Minister. This move is likely aimed at resonating with the tribal community, which comprises 23 per cent of Odisha's population.

Nuapada was the first electoral test for the Chief Minister, who had recently assumed charge. In Nuapada, BJP candidate Jay Dholkia secured a record margin victory, a rare feat in assembly byelections. The byelection was held due to the death of his father, Rajendra Dholkia, on September 8.

Rajendra Dholkia, the sitting BJD MLA, had been elected to the assembly four times and served as a cabinet minister under Naveen Patnaik. Initially, Jay Dholkia was expected to be the BJD candidate in the byelection, but the BJP successfully recruited him and fielded him as their own candidate. Consequently, BJD president and former chief minister Naveen Patnaik accused the BJP of 'candidate theft' during the byelection campaign, adding to existing 'vote theft' accusations against the party.

The byelection witnessed a higher voter turnout of 83.45 per cent compared to the previous election's 75.44 per cent; while a ruling party winning a byelection is not unusual, the Nuapada result carries significant political weight for state politics. The state’s BJP government had faced several problems, including law and order issues and governance deficiencies during the last 16 months.

In 2024, despite Naveen Patnaik's popularity, the BJD lost all Lok Sabha seats and was ousted from power. This defeat was attributed to the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, emphasizing 'Odia asmita' (Odia pride).

Several factors contributed to this outcome, including Naveen Patnaik’s health issues and the influence of V.K. Pandian, his former private secretary (Tamil Nadu-born IAS officer of Odisha cadre), on the government and party. Pandian's resignation from his government position and subsequent entry into the BJD fueled speculation that he aimed to usurp power.

Following BJD’s defeat, public sympathy grew for Naveen Patnaik, who underwent further health issues, including major surgery in Mumbai. He campaigned for party candidate Snehangini Chhuria, who was from a neighbouring district, and drew large crowds that overshadowed chief minister Majhi’s meetings. However, the widespread circulation of images depicting Patnaik’s frail health and the reliance of his attendants raised concerns about his physical capacity for political activities. Since the BJD supported the BJP at the national level in Parliament (Rajya Sabha) even after its electoral defeat, some believed that the BJD favoured the BJP's victory in Nuapada.

Further fueling suspicion, the BJD selected a non-local candidate. During the campaign, Congress leaders echoed those allegations. In the byelection, however, the BJD came in third, with the Congress securing second place. BJP candidate Dholkia won by a margin of 83,748 votes against Ghasiram Majhi, his nearest rival from Congress, securing 1,23,869 votes. Congress candidate Majhi received 40,121 votes, while BJD's Chhuria garnered 38,408 votes. The BJP polled more votes than the combined total of the Congress and BJD.

Since its major loss in both the Lok Sabha and assembly elections last year, the BJD has faced significant internal strife. Adding to the challenges, Patnaik turned 79 last month, and is facing several health issues, and many within the party feel that Pandian still exerts considerable influence over his personal and party decisions.

The BJD's fall to third place in Nuapada, a stark contrast to its victory last year, raises concerns about the party's future. In contrast, under its new president Bhakta Charan Das, a Dalit leader from Kalahandi, the Congress party (Nuapada was part of it before being made a district in 1990s) has become more active and assertive in recent months. Despite being the primary opposition in the assembly with Naveen as the Leader of Opposition, the BJD's passivity has led to speculations that the Congress might surpass it.

Regional parties are often characterized by family succession. Given that Naveen is unmarried, and his Delhi-based elder brother's descendants, especially his son Arun Patnaik, have shown no interest in politics, it creates uncertainty among party members. Therefore, the Nuapada byelection was a major loss for both Naveen and the BJD; Ghasiram Majhi, the Congress candidate who finished second, held the same position in last year's election as an independent candidate.

In essence, the Nuapada result has provided a significant boost to Congress's morale. The party has been out of power in Odisha since 2000, and it previously lost its position as the main opposition to the BJP. The Nuapada byelection has offered a glimpse of hope to party members, indicating the possibility of regaining their standing. Eventually, Nuapada, at the far end of the western Odisha, bordering Chhatisgarh, may be a harbinger of a new scenario in Odisha politics.