The ‘M’ factor appears to have powered a decisive win for the Nitish Kumar-led NDA alliance, according to early trends on Friday. The ‘M’ refers to mahila, or women, a constituency that Nitish Kumar has cultivated for two decades.
In the days before polling, the transfer of Rs 10,000 into the accounts of more than 1.3 crore women seems to have energised voters. This contributed to a turnout gap of more than nine percentage points between women and men.
For once, the exit polls that predicted a victory for the ruling alliance have been proved correct. The results have even surpassed expectations, with the NDA leading on about 190 seats around noon.
A strong pro-incumbency wave has driven the NDA’s gains. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar have received a major boost with the prospect of a sweeping mandate. While Nitish Kumar has focused on empowering women in Bihar, Modi has pursued similar measures nationally.
Women have been a critical voting bloc for the BJP in Maharashtra, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh, where cash transfers were a key promise.
With the JDU set to add about 30 seats to its 2020 tally, Nitish Kumar’s return as chief minister looks assured. His claim to the post has been strengthened by the support of women voters.
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Nitish Kumar has worked on women’s empowerment through several schemes. Girls received bicycles to support school attendance, and the liquor prohibition policy, aimed at reducing alcohol-related harm, won sustained approval from women despite continuing questions about its effectiveness.
Another significant initiative has been the Jeevika Didi programme. Aware of its popularity, the Grand Alliance’s chief ministerial candidate, Tejashwi Yadav, promised permanent status for the workers and a monthly payment of Rs 30,000. Early results suggest, however, that women voters have backed the leader they see as their most reliable supporter.
Tejashwi's main pitch was for government jobs. But as the trends indicate, the youth too have gone in favour of the ruling NDA as they were improving their tally by over 70 seats.
In the coming days, this ‘M’ factor is likely to push political parties to reassess their strategies. Analysts say that women-led decision-making in Bihar appears more independent than in other Hindi heartland states, with voters prioritising their own interests over traditional family or community pressures.
