With Assembly elections around the corner in Bihar, a surprise opinion poll has predicted how the state will vote to form the next government. The poll was conducted between September 1 and 25, covering 73,283 respondents across 243 constituencies.
According to the opinion poll conducted by JVC, the NDA government led by JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar will return to power, contrary to the chatter that the incumbent government is on its way out after a decade in power. There are a total of 243 seats in the Legislative Assembly, and a majority of 122 seats is required to form the government.
The survey revealed that Nitish clearly enjoys a strong local support, and the public support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi will translate into votes for him. Though the opposition is still not strong enough to take on Nitish Kumar, factors including anger at local representatives and women voters could pose a huge challenge. The electoral entry of Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj Party could also alter the equation on the ground, the survey revealed.
While it is expected that the NDA could get between 131–150 seats (BJP: 66–77, JDU: 52–58, other NDA partners: 13–15), Mahagathbandhan’s campaign will end between 81–103 seats. In this, RJD could get 57–71 seats, Congress 11–14, and others: 13–18. As for Prashant Kishor, his debut run could end between get 4–6 seats, while AIMIM, BSP, and others will get 5–6 seats.
Rahul’s ‘vote chori’ fizzles out?
The survey also reveals that the Biharis are most worried about law, identity, and jobs. Among the opposition’s ammunition, vote chori claims got only 17 per cent of the supporters, while caste census and law and order are issues for over 25 per cent of the population each.
Rahul Gandhi’s vote chori claims didn’t seem to have the desired effect as 52 per cent of the population believes his allegations are baseless. Only 34 per cent think they have set the narrative. As for Prashant Kishor’s influence, Jan Suraj Party is likely to eat into the Opposition’s vote share, especially among urban youth and disenchanted voters, according to the survey.
CM face?
Nitish Kumar still leads the preferred CM race with 27% people backing him. Over 25 per cent think Tejashwi Yadav makes a good chief minister, while Prashant Kishor has 15% backers. Chirag Paswan has 11% supporters.
Other survey results
Another survey conducted by Lok Poll has given different results. The Lok Poll survey predicts that the NDA is projected to win 105-114 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure 118-126 seats. Other parties and independent candidates are likely to claim 2-5 seats, pointing to the fierce and uncertain nature of the race. The opinion poll was conducted after three weeks on the ground.
