Will Trump@2.0 understand the Indian accent better?

Everything about President Donald Trump seems larger than life. And he flaunts it. No diplomatic niceties there. The question and answer session during his joint press conference along with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the East Room of the White House on February 13 opened on an off-beam note.

"Yeah, blue shirt," Trump pointed towards a blue-shirted Indian journalist who had a question about anti-India separatist groups in the US. Holding nothing back, Trump says: "I can’t understand a word he’s saying… it’s the accent.  It’s a little bit tough for me."

The next question evoked presidential laughter as it was on the "gross incompetence" of the Joe Biden administration. Trump added to good effect: "But I think we’ve taken care of it in just three weeks".

But make no mistake there. Behind the wild statements— 'the realty hotspot of Gaza', 'Greenland,' 'Gulf of America', 'Panama Canal'—there is a very smart business mind ticking. His trademark transactional approach distinguishes no friends from foes. 

With Modi next to him, Trump called out: "India has been, to us, just about the highest tariffed nation anywhere in the world… We are right now a reciprocal nation… We’re going to have whatever India charges, we’re charging them."

On the other hand, PM Modi reiterated a ‘partnership for prosperity’ with his liberal usage of acronyms. He said: "If I were to say this, borrowing an expression from America, our vision for a developed India is to ‘Make India Great Again,’ or MIGA. When America and India work together, that is when MAGA—when it’s MAGA plus MIGA, it becomes mega — a mega partnership for prosperity."

PM Modi’s visit to France just before the US can actually be a study in contrast. 

In Paris, Modi along with French President Emmanuel Macron co-chaired a global summit on Artificial Intelligence (AI) Summit on February 11 in Paris, an honour among the global comity of nations. The two leaders later flew together on the French presidential aircraft to Marseille and visited a war cemetery before inaugurating the new Indian consulate there. They had a private dinner together before Macron went to the airport to see off the Indian PM.

The takeaways from the French visit included a roadmap to work together on AI and nine other agreements, including three pacts on boosting civilian nuclear cooperation. This French visit too was characterised by the consistency that has been the traditional hallmark of India-France bilateral relations.

Yet in Modi, Trump extracted his concessions on tariffs. While a big takeaway of the outcomes is “Mission 500” or the ambitious target to more than double the total India-US bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, it will seek to reduce the US trade deficit with India which is about $100 billion currently.

Trump said: "PM Modi and I have agreed that we’ll begin negotiations to address the long-running disparities that should have been taken care of over the last four years…  And we want a certain level playing field, which we really think we’re entitled to… And we can make up the difference very easily with the deficit with the sale of oil and gas and LNG, of which we have more than anybody in the world."

What will facilitate this is the plan to "increase market access, reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers, and deepening supply chain integration".

Touché.

And then Trump made the pitch for the super expensive American F-35 fifth-generation fighters. A F-35 fighter costs anywhere between $80 million and $110 million but its lifetime operational cost is believed to be exorbitant at about $1.5 trillion, way beyond what India can afford especially for a fighter with basic technology that is about two decades old.

The F-35 offer comes amid a critical shortage of IAF fighter squadrons that is now down to about 30 whereas the mandated is at least 42 squadrons in case of a two-front war scenario. What has added a sense of urgency to India’s requirement is the sudden change in air force symmetry over South Asia with China deploying its fifth generation J 20s to air bases that are close to the Indian border.

Cash-strapped Pakistan too has upped the ante with reports that it is eyeing to procure 40 J-35 fighters that China has recently unveiled. Pakistan is also reported to be pondering over a joint production of the Turkish fifth-generation KAAN fighter.

While Russia has offered serious collaboration to India to jointly produce the fifth generation Sukhoi 57 in India, New Delhi has to keep its own interest foremost in mind with the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) in a fairly advanced stage of development. If it gets the sought-after aero engines on time, the AMCA will be ready by 2028 and can roll out from 2035 onwards.

As far as India-US ties go, a key development has been the inking of the COMPACT pact or ‘Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology’ for the 21st Century” which is a new ten-year framework within the Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership that would extend strongly across space, air defence, missile, maritime and undersea technologies.

Two key points stand out here. First is a policy review of the respective arms transfer regulations, and second to open negotiations for a Reciprocal Defense Procurement (RDP) agreement “to better align their procurement systems and enable the reciprocal supply of defence goods and services”. This would mean a huge boost to India’s export-oriented growth plan with a specific focus on defence and military equipment.

Significantly, the policy review will also include releasing undersea systems to India which is how future wars will be fought at sea.

A key outcome is the announcement of a new initiative called the ‘Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA)’ that aims to scale up industry partnerships and production in the Indo-Pacific as unmanned and autonomous systems are the declared future of military warfare.

Another significant new development is the US-India TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology) initiative wherein a roadmap will be prepared for collaboration "to promote the application of critical and emerging technologies in areas like defence, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum, biotechnology, energy and space."

On the energy front, Modi and Trump re-committed to the US-India Energy Security Partnership, including in oil, gas, and civil nuclear energy particularly in the backdrop of energy security being fundamental to economic growth and with both India and the US positioned as leading producers and consumers of energy. 

But the India-US partnership at most can be a chequered one. There will be areas where the two would have frayed positions.

On BRICS for instance, a multilateral platform that now accounts for about half of humanity and for more than 41% of world GDP. India, along with Russia and China are founding members of BRICS which now includes Iran too.

With the rise of BRICS concomitant with the stiff economic, strategic and military rivalry between the US and China and a move on part of the platform to erode the dominance of the US Dollar, it will turn into a bugbear for Trump. In the recent past, he had voiced his vociferous opposition to what BRICS stands for. 

Then there is the apprehension of India’s growing say in global matters and especially after its positioning as a leader of the Global South. Trump deftly skirted a question as to whether he saw an Indian role in the ushering in of peace in Ukraine. Yet he did talk about his conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese supremo Xi Jinping: "I’m going to meet with China, and I’m going to meet with Russia, and we’re going to see if we can de-escalate, if we can bring it down—military—especially as it pertains to nuclear." 

It takes no big understanding of realpolitik to comprehend that the US considers India to be its frontline in the effort to contain a growing and more assertive China.

Under Trump @ 2.0, the future of the India-US relationship will mainly depend on to what extent India will lend itself to be a willing partner in the American designs on China and to how much concessions Trump will offer India in return for such a position. And for that first, the US President will do well to follow the Indian accent better.