Delhi assembly elections: What’s in store for voters as parties scramble for slum vote?

Even though the political parties have showered freebies on Delhi slum dwellers ahead of election, water, sanitation, education, and health issues still haunt the people

Delhi elections People stand in a queue to cast their votes for the capitals state legislature election at a polling booth in New Delhi | AP

For 55-year-old Naseem, a simple cot serves as her makeshift bangle shop on a narrow street outside her home in East Delhi’s Kalyanpuri, a part of Kondli Assembly constituency. Her one-bedroom house looks cramped, but living in this urban slum, where water is undrinkable, sanitation poor, and streets filled with heaps of garbage, that’s the least of her worries. An open drain, a breeding ground for diseases, runs right next to her house. Exorbitant power bills, despite free electricity up to 200 units, is another major issue.

She tried raising the issue with the local MLA, but to no avail, Naseem says. “Whichever party wins in the Delhi Assembly polls, it’s because of the slum and jhuggi-jhopadi (JJ) voters, not those living in large bungalows. “But once elected, they first help themselves and not the voters,” quips her neighbour Isha. Meanwhile, Mahesh (46), who runs a shop nearby, says while his neighbourhood “elected Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the previous three elections – 2013, 2015, and 2020 – this time, we are looking for a change.”

Traditionally backers of Congress, the three lakh households in Delhi’s 675 slums and JJ clusters, who comprise a sizeable 10% of the city’s electorate, have since shifted allegiance to AAP, largely due to its welfare policies, which include up to 200 units of free electricity, 20,000 litres of free water, free bus rides for women, among others. “Out of 70, 55 seats have slums and JJ clusters, out of which in 20, they can have a direct impact on the electoral outcome,” says Delhi BJP’s general secretary Vishnu Mittal, as a result of which parties are competing fiercely to woo the slum voters, whether by announcing freebies or through a dedicated outreach.

Slums key to Delhi’s poll outcome

“It is reasonable to assert that slums hold a decisive influence in Delhi's elections,” says Professor Rekha Saxena, Head, Department of Political Science, University of Delhi. These largely comprise migrants from neighbouring states – Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan.

Notably, before the 2008 delimitation exercise, these were unevenly distributed, causing an imbalanced representation, with some seats having a higher concentration of slums and JJ clusters compared to others. However, the delimitation has led to a more even distribution with 50 seats having at least one JJ cluster, and about 30 having a sizeable concentration. At least 10 of them are heavily influenced by the slum vote. “Their importance is evident in constituencies like Seemapuri, Trilokpuri, and Mangolpuri, where the slum electorate constitutes a substantial percentage of total voters, often deciding outcomes in tightly contested races,” says Saxena. Other seats with sizeable slums and JJ population include Kondli, Okhla, Narela, Badarpur, and Adarsh Nagar, among others.

Not only their sheer demographic size, but their high voter turnout rate also renders them crucial to parties. “These communities often vote as cohesive blocs, amplifying their political significance,” says Prof Saxena, who explains, “For AAP, their sustained focus on education, healthcare, and affordable utilities has created a strong connection with slum dwellers, positioning them as the party of the urban poor. And for the BJP, a robust outreach program aligns with its strategy of consolidating votes across socio-economic groups, particularly in areas traditionally less supportive.”

BJP tries dedicated outreach

Having traditionally struggled to make inroads in this section, the BJP embarked on a dedicated slum outreach since early 2024, which has formed a crucial part of its campaign for the Delhi Assembly polls.

“Starting seven months back, we started visiting the jhuggis to understand people’s issues, make a connect with them, and establish the party’s structure there,” explains Mittal, who is in charge of BJP’s Jhuggi Vistarak Abhiyan (expansion campaign). About 250 local outreach workers, or vistaraks, were tasked with connecting with the voters at the booth level, to build trust and make an inroad.

“Every Sunday, we organised events such as health camps, Rakshabandhan and Diwali celebrations, etc. Our party people also stayed there, spending the night at homes of slum dwellers,” Mittal says, who adds that a positive impact of the efforts is evident, especially with the “more than expected” turnout at Home Minister Amit Shah’s Jhuggi Pradhan Sammelan at Delhi’s JLN Stadium in early January. In an appeal to the slum voters, the senior BJP leader said: "You have the power to be the muktidatas (liberators) of Delhi. Let’s ensure mukti (freedom) from AAPda on February 5".

While Saxena is confident that the party’s reach this election has increased considerably, AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal was quick to dub BJP’s outreach as “jhuggi tourism”. “All this jhuggi tourism is nothing but drama to get votes. The BJP is a party of rich people,” the former Delhi CM, who is seeking another term, said in response to Shah’s scathing attack.

It’s freebies raining this election

While the BJP embarked on a dedicated outreach, AAP stuck with its populist welfare policies, often dubbed as freebies, which offered it a foothold in this demography in the first place. Among its poll promises include “a monthly honorarium of Rs 2,100 for all women, free treatment of the elderly in public & private hospitals, free bus travel & 50 per cent off on metro fares for students, and welfare assurances for auto drivers & dhobis,” says AAP spokesperson Priyanka Kakkar.

“Largely aimed at slum votes, while such promises have traditionally resonated with this demography, this year, the voters are confused as the other parties, too, have promised the same,” says Dr Mahesh Kaushik, an economics professor at Delhi University. Kaushik is a member of the Centre for Global Studies (CGS), a social science research centre that is currently doing the Delhi Assembly Election Survey, being undertaken by the professors and teachers of Delhi University.

“Our top poll promises for slum and JJ clusters include Rs 2,500 for women every month, pension for senior citizens, and we’ll open an Atal Canteen in every jhuggi cluster, where anyone can eat for just Rs 5,” says the Delhi BJP general secretary.

While Chattar Singh, vice-president of the Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee says, “the JJ cluster vote is with the AAP due to its freebies,” the party, in an attempt to woo its traditional voter base, has made similar announcements, such as a monthly cash incentive of Rs 2,500 for women, similar promise for students, and a health insurance cover of Rs 25 lakh under the Jeevan Raksha Yojana.

“Now, the elections are largely on the basis of freebies, especially in Delhi, because the AAP is the founder of the freebies politics,” says Kaushik.

Here, he stresses the importance of women voters, “who comprise a significant section of those affected by freebies, as they take the free bus rides, manage their budget, hence free electricity and water are crucial to them.”

While the expert, based on the pilot survey the CGS conducted, says that “previously, this demography was totally in the favour of AAP, but now it’s changing its mind due to similar announcements made by other parties,” the women voters living in Delhi’s slums and JJ clusters are not even sure whether they’ll get the “freebies” they have been promised.

“Whether we’ll get the cash incentive or not, we’ll only get to know after the polls,” says 60-year-old Maya Devi, a resident of Balmiki Basti, ITO. “Nothing is for free,” comments 30-year-old Fiza, who lives in Kalyanpuri, and adds that “while the bus rides for us is free, the drivers often don’t stop seeing us.”

Meanwhile, experts believe that freebies don’t lead to actual development and can even pose a hindrance to that. “Politicians do these things for themselves by taking the name of welfare state concept. It doesn’t support the development of the state,” says Kaushik, who adds that “since 2013, there has been a shift in AAP’s politics from welfare to freebies.”

However, it is having an impact even beyond the borders of Delhi. “Even those parties who were previously opposed to such schemes have no other option but to announce the same,” comments Kaushik.

Meanwhile, on this scrambling for the slum vote through freebies announcement by every big political party in Delhi, AAP’s Kakkar says, “While other parties may attempt to replicate our welfare schemes, it’s important to note that AAP doesn’t just make promises—we deliver.” In an indirect dig at the BJP, she adds, “One such opposition party is in government in 20 states, it is making tall promises in Delhi but it hasn’t implemented any of these in any states it runs.”

Slum housing in limelight

With Delhi largely witnessing a bipolar contest between the AAP and the BJP, with Congress playing the third fiddle, “this election appears distinct due to the heightened focus on housing and infrastructural development in slums. Additionally, the visible efforts of BJP to court slum voters mark a departure from past trends, intensifying the competition in traditionally AAP-dominated areas,” says Professor Saxena.

And the pitch is being taken forward by the BJP’s top brass.

On January 3, Prime Minister Narendra Modi handed over keys to the 1,675 newly constructed flats at Swabhiman Apartments in Ashok Vihar as a part of the slum rehabilitation project. In his address to slum dwellers at BJP’s Jhuggi Pradhan Sammelan, Shah said, “We have provided homes to 3.58 crore people across India under Modi ji’s leadership, but Kejriwal has done nothing for Delhi’s slums. We will ensure every slum dweller gets a 'pakka' (permanent) house.”

Right after Shah’s statement, standing outside the Railway Jhuggi Camp in the Shakur Basti constituency, Kejriwal called himself the “protector of slums and slum residents,” and accused the BJP of planning to demolish Delhi’s slums.

As the parties are vying for the slum vote, with housing being a major issue, residents of the Railway Jhuggi Camp in the Shakur Basti constituency say there is a notice to demolish the jhuggi. “The notice has been pasted at several places,” the residents say, who add that “it doesn’t matter for whom they would vote if the jhuggi no longer remains.”

While the residents showcase little trust in the BJP, “Who is the one demolishing the jhuggis,” says 56-year-old Mohammed Jaluddin, people have faith in AAP. “It works for us. Since it came to power, there has been a pause at jhuggi demolition,” adds 60-year-old Mohammed Sharifuddin.

Where the slum vote would sway

Despite freebies and other populist welfare schemes, basic issues pertaining to water, sanitation, education, and health continue to ail Delhi’s slums and JJ clusters. While the demography has previously thrown its weight being AAP, “this time, we are looking at an alternative,” many residents say.

While both BJP and Congress claim better support and appeal among slum voters this time, Saxena says, “While the former’s increased outreach and promises of infrastructural development may attract some voters, a wholesale shift appears unlikely unless the party builds greater trust within these communities. At the same time, Congress, once dominant, faces significant challenges in regaining its foothold among slum voters, primarily due to the erosion of trust and lack of a strong organisational network. Its participation in these elections might be more symbolic than impactful unless it revives its relevance through targeted outreach.”

Here, the role of fringe parties viz the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), too, needs to be factored in, who can “play spoiler roles, fragmenting votes along identity lines. BSP’s influence, though diminished, remains significant in pockets with a Dalit voter base, while AIMIM may appeal to sections of Muslim voters, impacting closely contested constituencies,” the expert adds.

Meanwhile, while each party is vying for the slum vote to tip the political balance in its favour, especially in the tightly-contested constituencies, it’s the basic amenities that the residents are looking for.

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