In Western Uttar Pradesh, elections are often (and erroneously) equated with the Jat population. The Rashtriya Lok Dal is assumed to hold sway over this population, even though Ajit Singh- the deceased party president lost his life’s last Lok Sabha election from Muzzafarnagar in 2019.
Then, Singh, in a brief interview with this reporter had said that he was in the district to ‘set things right’- the reference being to the Hindu-Muslim clashes in the district in 2013. Subsequently, both Hindu and Muslim families had fled from villages dominated by the other community.
This time, the RLD has allied with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which conferred the Bharat Ratna on Chaudhary Charan Singh- the founder of the Bharatiya Kranti Dal the banner under which he strove to bring all agrarian castes- a far bigger dispensation than just the landed Jats.
Is the present alliance with the BJP a self-goal by Jayant Chaudhary who now heads the RLD? This question is significant given that the Muslims and the Jats had found common ground in the protests against the farm laws. Muslims form over 19 per cent of the state’s population; Jats just above one per cent. In Western UP, Muslims are the decisive factor in 13-15 seats, while Jats hold sway in 10 seats. The overlapping seats in their spheres of influence include Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat, Kairana, Amroha, Bijnor and Bulanshahr.
This though is not the first time that the RLD has thrown in its lot with the BJP. In fact, its best performance was in 2002 when it won 14 seats in alliance with the BJP.
The greater questions in Western UP are of the direction in which the Gurjars will sway. These are an OBC caste, whose numbers are much greater than the Jats. As are the numbers of those from the Rajput castes.
For now, both are miffed that they have been overlooked in ticket distribution. One of the most prominent exclusions (for Rajputs) is that of V.K. Singh from Ghaziabad who has been replaced by a Bania candidate, Atul Garg. In phase one, the BJP had just one Rajput candidate. In Muzzafarnagar, former MLA Sangeet Som (a Rajput) had openly opposed the candidature of the non-Rajput Sanjiv Baliyan- though on polling day he said all was well.
The SP list for the area includes OBCs and Dalits followed by Muslims. The BSP list is a mix of Jats, Dalits, Muslims and a Gurjar.
Thus for the BJP, western UP is not a given as its old equations have been overturned by some clever calculations by its opponents and also by its own, perhaps, not-so-smart candidate selection.
