The first phase of the elections in Uttar Pradesh is interesting as all the key players had claimed victories in the eight seats that go to the polls.
In the 2019 general election, the BJP won three seats- Kairana, Pilibhit and Muzaffarnagar. Nagina, Bijnore and Saharanpur had gone to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), while the Samajwadi Party (SP) won in Rampur and Moradabad. It was an election in which the SP, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the BSP had put up a joint fight.
This time, BJP’s winning candidate from Pilibhit, Varun Gandhi, is not in the fray, while in Muzaffarnagar, its candidate Sanjiv Baliyan has faced criticism from former legislator Sangeet Som. The SP is in a quandary in Rampur where Azam Khan has made his dissatisfaction with candidate selection known, while the BSP’s pick of candidates makes a deliberate push for the Muslim vote. The RLD has chosen to go with the BJP, despite the common ground that Jat and Muslim voters had found on the issue of the farm laws.
On the ground, there is talk of electoral bonds, unemployment and rising prices. However, will that be strong enough to ground the BJP? And, more importantly, what will be the role of local issues such as stray cattle and payment of sugarcane dues?
Among the most high-profile contests of this phase is in Pilibhit from where the BJP has fielded Jitin Prasad. It is a pick that has not gone too well with party workers who have been used to either Varun or Maneka Gandhi since 1996. Prasad’s home turf is Shahjahanpur. Bhagwat Saran Gangwar - the SP candidate too is a pick that has not made the local party unit happy. Will this benefit the BSP’s Anis Ahmed Khan? Or will the disenchantment at no tickets to Pasmanada Muslims (the most backward) keep the voter away from the party?
In Nagina, Chandrashekhar Azad of the Azad Samaj Party is the most watched face. In the Vidhan Sabha elections, Azad’s party had cobbled together a coalition of numerous small parties after being snubbed by the SP. Azad’s candidature is a direct threat to both the SP and the BSP, but, will it make things easier for the BJP?
Muzaffarnagar’s Sanjiv Baliyan has come under fire from Sangeet Som for being inaccessible to his constituents in general and for ignoring the Rajputs (who have sizeable numbers) in particular. Som is a Rajput, Baliyan a Jat, and such open criticism could work against the party.
In Rampur, Azam Khan’s shadow looms large. But will it be large enough to eclipse SP’s pick of Maulana Mohibullah, who is a complete contrast to the often anger-spewing Khan remains a mystery that only the voters can solve. The BSP has fielded Zeeshan Khan and if the Muslim vote does not polarize, a three-cornered contest could muddy the waters for the SP while giving BJP the advantage.
