The agility with which the BJP carried out its operation in Haryana has caught many off guard. The ruling party replaced its chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar with state party chief Nayab Saini while ending its alliance with deputy CM Dushyant Chautala’s Jat-dominant Jannayak Janata Party.
The BJP set in motion a plan similar to one in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where the veteran CMs had to make way for younger second-rung leaders. Like Shivraj Singh was picked up for Lok Sabha elections, there were indications that Khattar, too, may fight the upcoming polls.
A subsequent victory in the Lok Sabha could pave the way for a bigger role for Khattar in the next cabinet, given his long association with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Interestingly, a day earlier, Modi had praised Khattar during a programme in Haryana, recalling their past association.
But what it means for the BJP in the state is replete with electoral considerations. The BJP would not have gained much by fighting elections with the JJP, as the latter would have benefited more than the former.
In 2019, the BJP won all 10 seats in the state. It was not ready to allot any seats for the ally, as not much was to be gained in the subsequent assembly elections.
In the 2019 assembly polls, the Jats miffed with the BJP voted for the Congress and the JJP, while the rest—mostly Punjabi and OBC voters—sided with the ruling BJP, which had contested alone. Cut to 2024, and Jats continue to be cross with the party owing to reasons like farmers’ distress and a non-Jat CM. It was just two days ago that the BJP’s Jat MP, Brijendra Singh, quit the party to join the Congress.
With the saffron party’s latest move, the JJP will be forced to contest on its own in all the Lok Sabha and assembly seats. This means that the JJP will make it a fight of pride and go to its core constituents with passion, dipping largely into the anti-BJP vote bank—voters that the Congress and Dushyant’s uncle’s breakaway party are banking on. This will divide the opposition votes, thus helping the BIP in the process, sources said.
The BJP has made Dushyant’s grand uncle, Ranjit Chautala, a minister, while four of the 10 JJP MLAs were part of the swearing-in, signalling there was no threat to the government.
The BJP has taken a calculated risk with the change of CM in the state. Similar moves had helped the party in many states tide over the anti-incumbency to a great extent. If Khattar heads to the Lok Sabha, it may mean greater responsibility for him at the national level.
