With the Election Commission announcing the schedule for presidential election, stage is set for a keen political context, which will once again have the NDA and the opposition parties pitted against each other.
While the NDA candidate for the post, though short of absolute majority, is likely to win with the support of one of the friendly parties, the election will be an indication of opposition unity as the anti-BJP parties need to come together to put up a joint candidate.
According to the schedule, the notification will be issued on June 15, polling will take place on July 18, and counting on July 21. In the 2017 presidential poll, the notification had come on June 15, and on June 19, the NDA had announced the candidature of Ram Nath Kovind. He went on to become the first president from the saffron family.
This time around however, the BJP is maintaining a strict silence on its candidate. Even most leaders in the party are in the dark about the choice of presidential candidate. The Modi-Shah duo appears to have perfected the art of maintaining secrecy around its choice of candidates.
The party indeed is spoilt for choice when it comes to picking a candidate. There are chances of the party selecting a candidate from south India as it has been shifting its focus to this region where it hasn't been able to further its hold. By the time the party begins its national executive meeting in Hyderabad on July 1, the name of its candidate would be out.
Vice President M. Venkaiah Naidu hails from Andhra Pradesh. In the past, only two vice presidents were given a second term— S. Radhakrishnan and Hamid Ansari—while several others were elected to the top constitutional post. Naidu had a fruitful tenure as VP, and is one of the contenders for the top post.
If the BJP decides to pick a leader from Tamil Nadu or Telangana, the regional parties and governments will be forced to support him/her. One name doing the rounds is Telangana governor and former Tamil Nadu BJP chief Tamilisai Soundararajan.
India is yet to have a president belonging to a tribal community. Two names from the community who could be possible candidates are Chhattisgarh Governor Anusuiya Uikey and former Jharkhand governor Draupadi Murmu.
The post of president has much political significance. Kovind is a Dalit leader, a community that the BJP has been wooing for a long time. Karnataka Governor Thawar Chand Gehlot, who is also a Dalit, is also a contender for the post. He had met PM Modi recently.
Another name that is doing the rounds is Kerala Governor Arif Mohammad Khan. With the tenure of three Muslim BJP Rajya Sabha members—Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, M.J. Akbar, Syed Zafar Islam—ending soon, the saffron party will not have a Muslim lawmaker in either house of the Parliament. There are also murmurs that Naqvi, who is the Union minister for minority affairs, might be considered for the post.
However, most of these are mere speculations, given the penchant Modi-Shah duo for maintaining secrecy.
President Kovind will complete his tenure on July 24. Kovind, who often insists on following constitutional morality, had a successful and controversy- free tenure. While he was a surprise pick, it suited the BJP's efforts to reach out to Dalits. He was only the second Dalit to occupy the post after K.R. Narayanan.
No other person after first president Rajendra Prasad have had a second term. There has been a convention to pick a governor or a vice president, or a senior minister for the top constitutional post. The only two prominent groups not represented at the post since Independence has been OBCs and tribals. In 2017, the name Murmu, was doing the rounds. However, she was made governor.
The 2017 picks for president and VP were a success story for the BJP as for the first time both belonged to its ideological family. However, unlike 2017, the party lost a few allies and states now, but performed well in the recently concluded polls in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa. These electoral performances have made the BJP comfortable, but marginally short of majority. The halfway mark widened a bit after the 2022 assembly polls. In 2017, the BJP had won 312 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while its 2022 tally is 255. Increase in number of MPs in 2019 elections and higher strength in Rajya Sabha as compared to 2017, is however, an advantage.
The electoral college to pick the president has 4,896 electors, including 4,120 MLAs and, 543 Lok Sabha and 233 Rajya MPs. Each elector is assigned a vote value, depending on the population of respective states based on the 1971 census. For Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs, the value vote is 708, while it is different for MLAs from different states.
The EC said going by the current strength in state assemblies and the Parliament, the total value of votes for MLAs for 16th presidential election was 5,43,231. The total value of votes for MPs is 5,43,200. The total value of vote of electors for the presidential election 2022 is 10,86,431.
For a candidate to get elected, she/he has to secure at least 50 per cent plus one vote. The NDA will need support of either YSR Congress or BJD to sail through, though both the parties are favourably inclined to the BJP. Moreover, if the BJP picks up a candidate from the non-NDA ruled states, there will be pressure on the regional parties to support that candidate.
The NDA government, being in the comfortable position, may appeal to the opposition camp to support its candidate.
The opposition camp is yet to come on a same platform. The improved performance of Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, Aam Aadmi and TRS party along with Shiv Sena, and NCP may help build a credible opposition, along with Congress, but an effort to come together hasn't been seen yet, and may pick up steam only after the BJP announces its candidate.
Forming a joint front to oppose the NDA is crucial to non-BJP parties if they wish to challenge Modi in 2014.
