All eyes are on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Jammu and Kashmir on April 24. This is his first trip to the Union territory after the former state lost its statehood and special status under Article 370 on August 5, 2019.
In his Independence Day address in 2019, Modi had promised elections and restoration of statehood to J&K at an appropriate time. Jammu and Kashmir has been under Central rule since the collapse of the BJP-PDP coalition in June 2018.
Modi is coming to Jammu on the occasion of the National Panchayati Raj Conference at Palli in Samba.
More than 33,000 members of the three-tier Panchayati Raj institutions(PRI)—280 District Development Council (DDC) members, 280 BDC chairpersons, 4,190 sarpanchs and 28,000 panchs—have been invited to the event.
Modi will inaugurate and lay the foundation stones of several hydel power projects, five expressways and officially inaugurate the 11.5 km Banihal-Qazigund tunnel, the second-longest railway tunnel in the country.
He will also preside over the ground-breaking ceremony for industrial development proposals worth Rs 38,082 crore. He will meet delegations, including one from Kashmiri Pandits. The government is hopeful that 80,000 to 1 lakh people will attend the Palli conference.
He will also address representatives of around 700 panchayats and some farmers across the country.
Modi is visiting Jammu and Kashmir after the Delimitation Commission—set up by the Centre after the Article 370 move—has completed the delimitation exercise.
The Commission had increased by six the assembly seats in the Jammu region and only one in Kashmir despite the former having a larger population than Jammu. Jammu region will now have 43 assembly seats and Kashmir 47. Earlier, Jammu had 37 and Kashmir 46, and Ladakh had four before the region was separated from J&K and declared a UT.
The BJP has linked the restoration of statehood to Jammu and Kashmir to delimitation followed by elections.
Observers believe that the stage is set for Modi to blow the poll bugle, raising curiosity and excitement among the regional parties like the NC, the PDP, Peoples Conference and JK Apni Party.
People’s Alliance for Gupkar Alliance (PAGD), also called Gupkar Alliance, is keen to know whether Modi will talk about elections and make overtures to them. The PAGD is a six-party alliance that seeks the restoration of Article 370 and statehood to J&K.
Since the all-party conference on Kashmir in June last year, called by Modi, the Centre has not engaged with the regional parties. Political observers opine that Modi’s visit is the beginning of the BJP’s political campaign to galvanise its supporters for the impending elections. These experts believe he commands support in Hindu-majority Jammu, especially in the Dogra heartland comprising the districts of Jammu, Udhampur, Kathua and Samba and parts of Reasi.
In essence, Modi is the face of the party in Jammu as it lacks a popular local leader unlike in Uttar Pradesh, where there is Yogi Adityanath. The BJP depends a lot on Modi’s persona to drum up support for the party. The party's feat of winning 25 seats in the last assembly election was due to the 'Modi wave'.
The BJP supporters in Jammu had rejoiced after the scrapping of Article 370. Since then, the joy has soured due to a growing sense of dis-empowerment in Jammu, much like Kashmir, due to the lack of a political agency, lack of economic opportunities, fear of outsiders taking jobs and business jobs going to outsiders. All this has made people angry against the BJP.
But the BJP is hopeful that the steps it has taken after the reading down of Article 370 will pacify its supporters and woo more people to its fold. The party believes the addition of six assembly seats to Jammu against only one in Kashmir will help it in the elections.
The party hopes that reservations in jobs and educational institutions for economically backward classes and people living close to the international border (IB), the revival of 25,000 village defence groups with the monthly financial assistance of Rs 4,000, and a better security situation in J&K will help it to tide over incumbency.
For the first time in two years, the Centre has allowed the annual Amarnath Yatra, which will witness the record participation of 6-8 lakh pilgrims. In 2019, the yatra was called off due to a security threat two days before the abrogation of Article 370. In 2020 and 2021, the yatra couldn't be undertaken due to the Covid pandemic.
Both the Centre and the J&K government are planning the yatra this year on a large scale. The home ministry is sending 300 additional companies of Central armed police forces (CAPF) to Kashmir for the security of the yatra.
According to sources, Modi will focus on the achievements of the UT administration under Lieutenant-Governor Manoj Sinha, like investment proposals for J&K from local and international investors from UAE. But his visit signals the Centre’s readiness and confidence to revive the democratic process in Jammu and Kashmir, which had been stalled since the revocation of Article 370.
