The Aam Aadmi Party appears all set to form a government in a second state, after coming to power in Delhi for the first time in 2013.
As of 11.30am on Thursday, the AAP was leading in counting of votes in 88 of the 117 constituencies of Punjab, while the incumbent Congress was ahead in just 15 seats. In 2017, the AAP won 20 seats, while the Congress won 77 seats.
The 2017 election was the first foray by the AAP in a assembly poll in Punjab. Of the 20 seats AAP won, 18 of the seats were from the Malwa region. The Malwa region is the largest of the three regions of Punjab, the others being Majha and Doaba.
Malwa accounts for 69 of the 117 seats in Punjab. The Congress had won 40 of the seats in the Malwa region in 2017. But trends on Thursday showed AAP ahead in 64 of the 69 seats of the Malwa region, marking a seismic shift in the region's politics. The Akali Dal once commanded significant influence in Malwa; it won only eight seats in 2017.
The Malwa region was the epicentre of the farmers' agitation that began in late 2020. This was expected to be a factor that would have benefited the Congress. Prominent leaders who are trailing in Malwa include Sukhbir Singh Badal of the Akali Dal, who was trailing Jagdeep Kamboj of the AAP by nearly 7,000 votes in Jalalabad and his father Parkash Singh Badal, who was trailing Gurmeet Singh Khudian of the AAP by over 5,000 votes in Lambi.
Majha region
The Majha region, which borders Pakistan, is surrounded by the Ravi and Beas rivers. Considered the centre of religious politics in Punjab, the Akali Dal held considerable influence in Majha, but got only two seats of the 25 seats in the region in 2017. The AAP failed to win any seat in Majha in 2017, while the Congress won 22.
At 11.30pm, AAP was leading in 16 of the 25 seats in Majha region.
Doaba region
Considered the most prosperous region of Punjab, due to its fertile land, Doaba accounts for 23 seats. The dalit vote is considered a major factor in Doaba, with the dalit population accounting for between 25 per cent to 75 per cent of the voters in these constituencies.
The Congress won 15 of the 23 seats of Doaba in 2017, while AAP won 2. This time, AAP is leading in eight seats, while Congress is ahead in eight.
