The ruling BJP might have won the Khandwa Lok Sabha seat and two of three assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh bypolls, but a look at results data shows that the opposition Congress's vote share increased substantially in the four seats, while the BJP's vote share went down significantly in Khandwa and Raigaon assembly seat, where it lost.
Along with the fact that it was the ruling party, and the aggressive campaign by its leaders, with Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan leading from the front, the strategy of the BJP to give tickets to winnable candidates 'imported' from other parties, paid off in the two assembly seats, political analysts say.
Congress could not counter this strategy. As for Khandwa, the Congress could not fill the 18.62 per cent gap in vote share in 2019 general elections, despite big gains this time.
In the bypolls, Congress increased its vote share by as much as 18.1 per cent compared to 2018 assembly polls in the Raigaon seat that it won. In the Prithvipur and Jobat seats that it lost, its vote share went up by 7.7 per cent and 9.27 per cent respectively.
In Khandwa, the Congress vote share went up by 4.86 per cent while the BJP vote share went down significantly by 7.29 per cent compared to the 2019 general elections.
In Raigaon, BJP vote share went down by 2.25 per cent from 2018.
In Prithvipur, the BJP vote share jumped up by 46.12 per cent and that in Jobat by 16.89 per cent, but this increase of votes is being credited to the candidates rather than the party.
Prithvipur is considered a Congress stronghold, but BJP gave the ticket to Shishupal Yadav, who was a Samajwadi Party candidate in 2018 polls and had come second, behind Congress's Brajendra Singh Rathore then, garnering as much as 32 per cent votes. These SP votes seemed to have transferred with Yadav to the BJP this time. Also, the fact that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which had garnered 20 per cent votes in 2018, did not field a candidate, helped divide its vote between BJP and Congress, therefore giving the BJP (which came fourth in 2018) an edge. Yadav won by 15,687 votes.
Political watchers say that the Congress seemed to take Prithvipur seat for granted as it did not put much effort there, while the BJP went all out. CM Chouhan held as many as nine public meetings in the constituency.
In Jobat, the BJP placed its bet on Sulochana Rawat, a former minister and three-time MLA, who switched over from Congress just ahead of the bypolls. Rawat's son Vishal managed 22 per cent votes as an independent in 2018 assembly polls after being denied a Congress ticket. The BJP strategists read the popularity of the family right and got them to change loyalties, with good results. Rawat, however, could manage only a moderate victory margin of 6,104 over the Congress candidate, as the grand old party gained significant votes share there.
In Raigaon, the absence of a BSP candidate, who had bagged 11 per cent votes, helped the Congress. It won the seat by a margin of 12,290 votes, beating the huge vote share difference of 11.8 per cent with BJP in the 2018 polls. In 2018, the now Congress MLA Kalpana Patel had lost to BJP's Jugal Kishore Bagri by 17,421 votes.
The BJP seems to be acutely aware of the ground situation regarding the vote swing. Internally, they assessed the reasons of waning popularity to be price rise, especially of fuel, farmers’ issues, including fertiliser shortage, and COVID-19 impact. The party is said to be quite worried on these fronts despite the win in the bypolls.
When contacted, MP BJP spokesperson Hitesh Bajpai said, “We have taken note of all the statistics, and we will be analysing them in-depth and remedial measures will be taken.”
The Congress is quick to point out its gain in votes despite the seats lost. Spokesperson Narendra Saluja said, “BJP has lost all the four seats in MP (bypolls). A candidate imported from Congress registered a slim win in Jobat, a candidate imported from SP won in Prithvipur while they lost Raigaon seat badly. In Khandwa seat, the winning margin dipped from 2.73 lakh to around 80,000 (82,140). We snatched the Mandhata, Pandhana assembly seats (part of the Khandwa LS seat) from BJP and won Raigaon after 35 years. Congress vote share increased in all seats.”
In a series of tweets, he added, “This is the situation when Shivraj government, all ministers, many BJP MPs, MLAs and other leaders had gotten full time into election mode. BJP should not celebrate as the factual situation of results is different. Despite all gimmicks, use of money power, misuse of government machinery, bogus voting and goondaism, we won one of the two seats (in direct contest with original BJP candidates). These were bypolls and BJP used everything. So, in 2023, they are sure to lose badly, and people will send them home. The Congress flag will fly high again. These results will not affect our enthusiasm and determination.”
IN NUMBERS
SEAT |
YEAR |
Congress vote share (in %) |
BJP vote share |
Khandwa LS |
2019 |
38.52 |
57.14 |
|
2021 |
43.38 |
49.85 |
|
|
|
|
Raigaon |
2018 |
32.7 |
44.5 |
|
2021 |
50.8 |
42.25 |
|
|
|
|
Prithvipur |
2018 |
35.3 |
7 |
|
2021 |
43.04 |
53.12 |
|
|
|
|
Jobat |
2018 |
33.5 |
32.03 |
|
2021 |
42.77 |
46.92 |
