Any thaw in relations with Pakistan seems to be as deceptive as the forecast of an early monsoon in Delhi. This year, forget early, the monsoon's arrival is delayed. And despite what looked like an icebreaker in the spring of 2021—the announcement of a ceasefire between the two neighbours—there is no headway in any rapprochement.
The latest round is finger pointing from Pakistan, accusing India's Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) of having orchestrated a bomb blast in Lahore last month. The blast, which occurred on June 23 near the house of Jamaat-ud-Daawa chief Hafiz Saeed, reportedly killed three and injured 24.
Pakistan, giving a twist to India's own phraseology, called it an act of India-sponsored terror. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan and National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf have both launched verbal attacks on New Delhi. Khan used social media to call upon the “global community” to “mobilise international institutions against this rogue behaviour''. The behaviour he alluded to was, in his words, “the planning and financing of this heinous terror act''. Yusuf, meanwhile, pointed out the “concrete evidence” that the Pakistani agencies have collected to prove India's hand in the attack. He also went a step ahead and said that on the day of the blast there were thousands of co-ordinated cyber attacks on Pakistan's information infrastructure, further alleging that these attacks were done to throw Pakistan off the scent in the investigation of the blasts.
These accusations are significantly coming thick and fast after the drone attack in Jammu's Indian Air Force base on the night of June 26-27, which injured two soldiers. India was careful not to outrightly blame Pakistan or any outfit based in that country, though investigators did let it out that the likelihood of the drones having come from across the border was high. Pakistan-based militant outfits, they say, have in the past used this method to drop arms into India. In fact, on the day of the drone attack in India, a drone was also spotted over the Indian High Commission premises in Islamabad.
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Pakistan's tirade could have a negative impact on the already battered relations. India has shown, with the Balakot raid in 2019, that it will not take attacks from across the border without hitting back. Could this recent round of accusations from Pakistan's leadership be a way of creating a narrative for the global audience against India?
Pakistan is struggling with its terror taint. The recent decision of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international terror financing watchdog, to continue keeping Pakistan on the grey list for three incomplete tasks, has been a major blow to the country. Pakistan has been on that list since 2018. The country was earlier, too, on the list from 2012 and 2015. The grey listing impedes the country's access to development funding, something it is in much need of. It also gives it an unsavoury international reputation.
Peaceniks were seeing hopes sprout in small developments—the two NSAs, Yusuf and Ajit Doval had shared space at the Dushanbe meet of NSAs of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation countries, ironically, on June 23-24. While there was no bilateral meeting on the sides, even the fact that they did not contradict each other was significant. Last year, Doval had walked out of a similar SCO meeting, held virtually due to the pandemic, because Pakistan had displayed a map on the background, which incorrectly depicted the borders of the two countries.
In fact, there were whispers over the last few weeks of back channel talks between the two countries.
The February ceasefire announcement was followed soon by a visit to New Delhi by Pakistani officials for the Indus Water Commission (IWC) talks, which are held every year, hosted by each country alternately. The meeting was being held after 2018, and therefore its significance was underscored. An Indian team now has to visit Pakistan to inspect the dams, but Pakistan alleges that despite reminders, India is yet to respond.
A friendly neighbourhood may be a very great expectation. But will accusations like the recent ones from Pakistan blow away even the hope for an uneasy peace between the two?
