While the probe launched by a French judge into Dassault Aviation's sale of Rafale fighters has echoes of the roar of the Bofors gun, it may end up missing political targets. And with a little bit of deft handling, the ruling party could even make it recoil on the opposition Congress.
Like in the case of the Bofors scandal, which virtually undid the Rajiv Gandhi government in the 1980s, the Rafale deal is also being probed in the seller country and not in India. It was a report by a Swedish radio that first alleged corruption in the Bofors deal; in the case of the Rafale deal, it is a digital publication, Mediapart, that has alleged hanky panky in the Rafale deal.
With the Bofors deal, it was the government that went for a joint parliamentary probe. Now, it is the opposition Congress that has raised the demand for a parliamentary probe.
The JPC probe into the Bofors deal was headed by ruling party member B. Sankaranand and boycotted by the then opposition parties including the BJP. The probe ended up as a whitewash bid.
The issue became a political scandal with allegations that the prime minister's family had received kickbacks. The gun deal however proceeded with India getting all the guns it had contracted for, but the V.P Singh-led coalition that came to power in 1989 blacklisted the seller firm, leading to India not being able to avail of the licence and technology to make the guns and ammunition in India, after having paid for those. As far as the deal was concerned, in effect, it was the blacklisting that finally affected India negatively and not the probe in Sweden.
There is no such fear in the case of the Rafale deal, unless the French judge finds mala fide in the deal and the French government cancels it. India would then be free to claim damages and encash the bank guarantees. Moreover, since there is no provision in the Rafale deal for the transfer of manufacturing know-how to India, the damage to India, if any, could be minimal.
In fact, the severest criticism raised by the opposition against the deal is that there is no provision in the 7.8 billion euro deal for the transfer of technology or licence for making the planes in India.
Thus, as of now, the IAF is relieved that the probe would not affect the deal till the entire contingent of 36 aircraft is delivered. “But there could be issues over post-sale services,” said an IAF officer, “if the probe reveals any mala fide.”
Politically, the ruling BJP could also try to turn the tables on the opposition. The Mediapart report has alleged that plane-maker Dassault and electronics firm Thales paid several million euros to Indian middleman Sushen Gupta to influence the Rafale deal. The BJP could allege that Gupta is an accused in the VVIP helicopter scam which is alleged to have happened during the UPA government's tenure and that he had been close to the Congress-led regime.
The BJP could also allege that it was during the UPA era that the alleged mala fide transactions took place and that the Modi government had cancelled that deal and negotiated another one. The Mediaport report alleged that 14.6 million euros were transferred to a shell company in Singapore between 2004 and 2013. The UPA was in power during those years. The government could also use the Supreme Court's clean chit to state that the present deal has been fair.
In short, everything will depend on who—the ruling party or the opposition—will handle the scandal more deftly than the other. Any guesses?
