The agitating farmers are adamant that the three farm laws must be repealed, while the Central government seems adamant they will not be. The next meeting, fixed for January 8, is unlikely to resolve the deadlock. So what is likely to be the upshot?
The farmers have besieged Delhi, and one of their leaders, Rakesh Tikait, has announced they will join the Republic Day parade on Rajpath with their tractors on January 26. Already, they are taking out tractor rallies, though presently, all have been on the outskirts of Delhi.
But when they try to enter Delhi from outside, it is very likely they will be stopped by water cannon and teargas, and if that does not work, by lathi-charge and bullets. To allow a mob of 100,000 farmers to storm into Delhi and join an Army parade means surrendering authority, and no government will allow that.
As much as one may wish that does not happen, a repeat of the Jallianwala Bagh massacre or Bloody Sunday (as in St Petersburg in January 1905) or Vendemiarie (as in Paris in October 1795) seems inevitable, and sooner or later, the farmers will be dispersed by a 'whiff of grapeshot', as was done by Napoleon's cannons.
But what after that? Soon after such an incident of use of force, Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh will be plunged into turmoil.
By their long agitation, the farmers have ensured that the three laws, though on the statute book, cannot be implemented on the ground, because the atmosphere is so emotionally surcharged in Punjab, Haryana, western UP, and also in some other states that this is now practically impossible.
One would not be surprised if the grain silos built by some corporates are soon attacked, like the 1,500 mobile towers in Punjab. There are about 750 million farmers in the country, and almost all have sympathy with the agitating farmers (though obviously all cannot reach Delhi). Also, many industrial workers, lawyers, intellectuals, sportsmen, Bollywood actors, ex-servicemen and others are supporting the farmers' agitation. Even Army soldiers and policemen would largely be sympathetic, as a soldier or policeman is a peasant in uniform, or son of a peasant (though being a member of a disciplined force, he cannot express his sympathy openly).
And what about the farmers' votes? Till now, our politicians had been successful in keeping our farmers divided on the basis of caste and religion, but this agitation has united them. So how will that affect the next elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Assam this year (and in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat in 2022)? Most of the voters in these states are farmers. This is the real nightmare for the ruling party today.
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- Farmers' 'mahapanchayat' at Ramlila Maidan today; resolution planned against Centre
- Farmers to march to Jantar Mantar today; Delhi under tight security
- SKM was not in favour of 'Delhi Chalo' call, says farmer leader Pandher
- Farmer injured at Khanauri border: Amarinder Singh condemns 'barbaric' act by Haryana Police
The real achievement of the farmers' agitation is that it has united the people of India, who were till now divided on caste and communal basis, and this was exploited by our crafty politicians.
I submit the farmers' agitation is a milestone in our country's history, and will lead up to a mighty, united people's struggle, which may last for 10-15 years, but will result in creating a political and social order under which India rapidly industrialises, gets totally transformed from an underdeveloped nation to a highly developed, prosperous country, which ensures a high standard of living and decent lives for all our citizens.
Justice Markandey Katju retired from the Supreme Court in 2011
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author's and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK
