Decoding Bihar results: PM Modi, Tejashwi emerge biggest winners; Congress, JD(U) lose ground

"Voters of Bihar have rejected dynasty, casteism, politics of appeasement," said BJP

PTI10-11-2020_000164B Vote counting in Bihar assembly polls | PTI

The final results of the tense, high-stakes Bihar assembly polls were declared late on Tuesday. Even as the opposition raised issues of vote mismanagement, the tally showed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) emerging comfortable winners with over 125 seats (122 being the half-way mark in the 243 member assembly). The BJP is the single-largest party in the alliance with 74 seats, the JD(U) with 43, Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awami Morcha (HAM) with four seats and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) with four seats.

The opposition grand alliance won 110 seats, with the RJD winning in 75, the Congress in 19, CPI(ML) in 12, CPI in two and CPI(M) in two others.

Surprisingly, Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM won five seats (making inroads in the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal belt), the BSP with one seat, and the LJP with one.

What the results mean for Nitish Kumar and the JD(U)

CM Nitish Kumar, despite his party's poor showing in the polls, will again be chosen for the top spot, going by the statements of BJP leaders. Home Minister Amit Shah had assured that no matter how many seats the BJP or JD(U) wins, Nitish Kumar will be chief minister if NDA wins. 

However, his clout in the alliance will be reduced manifold, given the debilitating slide in the number of JD(U) lawmakers—it came down to 43 from 71 in 2015. The drastic fall in the number of JD(U) MLAs, however, will likely make the BJP, which hitherto played a second fiddle to Kumar, more assertive, and it may insist on a larger share in the ministerial pie and greater say in governance. The Indian Express reported that there are increasing noises within the BJP now. There is an awareness that the anger against Nitish Kumar was vocal and visible during the campaign and a senior BJP leader said that the party will keep future options open and "there could be a review of this decision after six months to one year”, the publication reported.

Much of Nitish Kumar's plight can be blamed on the damage Chirag Paswan's LJP inflicted on his JD(U), according to party spokespersons. Chirag Paswan's party spoiled the JD(U)'s chances in at least 30 seats. JD(U) spokesperson K.C. Tyagi said that a "sinister" campaign was run against Nitish Kumar as part of a "conspiracy" and that "our own also harmed us along with the outsiders".

What the results mean for the BJP

The stellar showing in the Bihar elections will be another feather cap in the cap of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His popularity, which looks intact, has pushed the NDA to a clear victory, even as the JD(U) pulled the alliance down with a weak showing. 

Attributing the party's victory in Bihar and in various assembly bypolls to the people's faith in Modi, the BJP leaders said the voters of Bihar have rejected dynasty, casteism and politics of appeasement. The party leaders and ministers also credited the victory in Bihar to the Modi government's success in navigating the country during the COVID-19 crisis.

Describing the BJP's victory as the reimposition of faith in the Modi government's pro-poor policies, the party president J.P. Nadda said the entire nation has reposed its trust in the welfare work done by the Centre, as shown by results of the Bihar assembly elections and by-elections in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Manipur and Telangana. Talking about Bihar assembly elections, Nadda said people of Bihar have rejected dynasty, corruption, divisive politics while expressing faith in Prime Minister Modi's leadership and in the work done by the state's NDA government led by Nitish Kumar.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah termed the victory in the elections as a reflection of people's faith in the Modi government's battle against COVID-19 and said it was a lesson to those who were trying to misguide the people.

What the results mean for the RJD and Tejashwi Yadav

The RJD, whose campaign was helmed by Tejashwi Yadav, the younger son and heir to party supremo Lalu Prasad, emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats. Why did the grand alliance fail to come to power, despite so many exit polls predicting a wave victory for the opposition?

There are multiple reasons. A lacklustre show by the Congress in Bihar seems to have proved costly, as it dragged down the RJD too. Multiple claimants to Muslim votes, including the Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF) comprising Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM, BSP and Upendra Kushwaha's RLSP worked in NDA's favour and scuppered the Mahagathbandhan's chances. Muslim and Yadav voters have for long formed the bedrock of the grand alliance support base.

The election also saw the coming of age of Tejashwi Yadav, who came across as an indefatigable leader after RJD's unprecedented drubbing in the Lok Sabha polls last year when it failed to open its account. The NDA had clinched all but one of the 40 seats in the state, leaving the young leader in torpor and his party demoralised.

Tejashwi's ability to lead the party in the absence of his charismatic father and party supremo Lalu Prasad, who had landed in jail after conviction in fodder scam cases, was called into question. However, after the assembly elections were announced, he steeled himself for the struggle ahead and almost single handedly brought the opposition close to power in a fight against an army of battle-hardened veterans.

What the results mean for the Congress

A poor outcome for the Congress, which would otherwise have powered the RJD-led alliance into power. The Congress's tally dropped from 27 in 2015 to 19. Though the Congress improved its vote share from 6.66 per cent in 2015 to nearly 9.5 per cent in this election, its strike rate this time was less than 30 per cent as against 66 percent last time.

The grand old party had contested in 70 seats this time, with its ally RJD contesting in the majority seats. In 2015, the Congress had contested in 41 seats.

On their part, Congress sources told news agency PTI that it would be "unfair" to say that the party fared poorly as it contested those seats in Bihar which were traditionally NDA strongholds and the JDU-BJP combine had a strike rate of over 95 in the past. Party insiders said the seats it contested also did not have the advantage of Muslim-Yadav combination and were never contested by it earlier.

The presence of AIMIM also cost the Congress dearly as the Asaduddin Owaisi-led outfit won five seats and cost the grand alliance some 15-odd seats.

-Inputs from PTI

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