What next in Rajasthan Congress crisis? Gehlot's numbers game in assembly, explained

Congress is moving to disqualify Pilot, 18 MLAs. Does the party have the numbers?

raj-rahul-gehlot-pilot-twitter (From left) Ashok Gehlot, Rahul Gandhi and Sachin Pilot

On Wednesday, Rajasthan Speaker C.P. Joshi issued notices to Sachin Pilot and 18 other rebel Congress MLAs, after the party sought their disqualification from the state assembly. Pilot, who was recently sacked as the Rajasthan deputy chief minister and the state Congress chief, and the others were asked to respond to the notices by Friday. According to party, the MLAs defied a whip in not attending the party's legislature party meetings held on Monday and Tuesday.

Among those sent notices are Vishvendra Singh and Ramesh Meena, who were sacked along with Pilot from the state cabinet after their rebellion against Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. Others include Deepender Singh Shekhawat, Bhanwar Lal Sharma and Harish Chandra Meena, who had given statements to the media challenging the Gehlot government.

The notice referred to their "hostile" media statements, claiming it warrants action under paragraph 2(1)(a) of the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution, which disqualifies MLAs if they voluntarily give up the membership of the party which they represent in the House. The Congress letter said the Supreme Court has unequivocally held that the provision comes into effect when the conduct of an MLA leads to this inference.

What happens next in the state? Do Sachin Pilot and other Congress rebels have a legal recourse? In the event of a trust vote, can the Ashok Gehlot government shore up the numbers in the assembly?

What do the numbers currently look like in the Assembly?

The Congress in Rajasthan currently has 107 MLAs in the 200-member assembly, after six BSP legislators crossed over into the Congress fold. Subtract the 19 legislators and the ruling party would have a strength of 88. The BJP, on its part, has 72 MLAs and is supported by 3 MLAs from the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, which takes its tally to 75. 

Most importantly, there are 13 independents who can tilt any trust vote the assembly, and five legislators from the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), the CPI(M) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).

Do the numbers back Gehlot?

Right now, the numbers are in favour of the veteran Congress leader. While it remains to be seen how the CPI(M) and BTP legislators would act in the case of a floor test (the CPI(M) had taken action against a legislator for voting pro-Congress in Rajya Sabha polls, and BTP recently issued a whip asking MLAs to abstain from a trust vote), the independents are largely considered pro-Gehlot. At least 10 out of the 13 independents are 'associate' Congress members, and are widely expected to back Gehlot in the case of a floor test. 

But, the opposition BJP are still a party known for their ability to pull a rabbit out of a hat at the last minute. 

What will happen next?

If Pilot and the rebel MLAs do not respond to the Congress notice (which seems more and more likely), the speaker can go forward with disqualification. Even if Pilot and the rebel MLAs approach the Supreme Court, looking to pre-empt the disqualification procedure, a legal intervention is unlikely. The courts have been loath to interfere in the sweeping powers of disqualification of the speaker. In July 2019 in Tamil Nadu (echoed later in Karnataka), the Supreme Court had asked why courts should venture into the question of disqualification of MLAs for defection when the Constitution has conferred this power to the assembly speaker. "When the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution confers the power of disqualification on the speaker, then why should the court assume this power?," said a bench comprising Justices S.A. Bobde, R. Subhash Reddy and B.R. Gavai.

What are the recourses in front of Pilot and the rebel Congress MLAs?

If the Rajasthan speaker disqualifies Pilot and the rebel legislators, they can then approach the Supreme Court against the action. A disqualification procedure at this stage leaves a lot of legal questions unanswered. Neither Pilot nor the rebel MLAs have resigned from the party. The Congress held in its disqualification notice that the MLAs deliberately conspired against the Congress, acting openly against its interests and that "they indulged in activities blatantly prejudicial to the continuation of the state government". Chief Whip Mahesh Joshi also wrote that the MLAs "deliberately absented" themselves from the meeting of the Congress Legislature Party (CLP) held on Monday and, despite reminders, failed to attend the second meeting the next day. However, the Pilot camp has held that the whip to attend the CLP meeting (and the subsequent disqualification under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution) does not hold, as the state legislature is not in session. 

The Congress, as mentioned earlier, claimed that the actions of the MLAs hold to an inference that they have resigned from the party. 

Or, to pre-empt disqualification, Pilot and the other MLAs can tender their resignations to the governor and bring him into play. The governor can then ask Gehlot to prove his strength in a floor test in the assembly. The advantage of pre-empting a disqualification is that the legislator who resigned can still become a minister in the state government, which will make their bypoll re-election prospect all the brighter. A disqualified legislator will have to wait until he is re-elected.

What is the Congress stance on Pilot?

They are blowing hot and cold at the moment. While Gehlot openly blamed Pilot for horse-trading with the BJP, the Congress said the dissident MLAs can still return to the party fold.

Avinash Pande, the AICC in-charge of Rajasthan indicated this in a tweet in the morning and party spokesperson Randeep Surjewala followed that up while interacting with the media in the afternoon. Pilot has said he is not joining the BJP but not spelled out his next move.

"The party's doors have not closed for Pilot. May God give him good sense and he realises his mistake. I pray that he comes out of the BJP's illusory trap," Pande tweeted in Hindi. Senior leader Surjewala said all grievances will be heard and solutions found. "Come back to your family, sit with your family and place your view before the family," he told mediapersons from a Jaipur hotel where MLAs in the Gehlot camp are holed up. He said if Pilot is not joining the BJP, he should not accept the hospitality of BJP-ruled Haryana, referring to reports that the MLAs close to the rebel leader are camping in two Gurgaon hotels.