Spread across eight states, elections to 19 Rajya Sabha seats will be held today, with numerous tight contests expected. Polls will be held to four seats in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat, three each from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, two from Jharkhand, and one each from Manipur, Mizoram and Meghalaya. Originally the elections were to take place on March 26 for 55 Upper House seats, but 37 candidates have already been elected without a contest. The Election Commission had deferred the March 26 Rajya Sabha elections citing the threat of the novel coronavirus.
In the election to the Upper House of Parliament, each MLA is required to write 1, 2, 3 and so on against candidates' name on the ballot paper. The numbers indicate the preference of vote. The results will be announced today.
The Election Commission (EC) has made elaborate arrangements for the voting keeping in mind COVID-19. Every voter (MLA) will be screened for body temperature and will have use masks and adhere to social distancing norms. Legislators having a fever or showing other symptoms will be kept in a separate waiting room.
With many MLAs switching sides, the past few months have seen parties indulging in 'resort politics' to keep their flock together. Several MLAs have been lodged in resorts to stop "poaching" by rival factions. The Congress has time and again alleged that the BJP used arm-twisting tactics to force several of their Gujarat MLAs to resign.
In Gujarat, the contest is likely to go down to the wire as both the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress do not have absolute numbers in the assembly to get all their candidates win on their own.
Andhra Pradesh
Four out of 11 seats in the Upper House of Parliament from AP fell vacant on April 9 as sitting members retired at the end of the six-year term. With a strength of 151 in the 175-member AP Assembly, and the support of four "rebel" legislators of TDP and Jana Sena, the YSRCP is comfortably placed to win all four. A minimum of 36 votes are required for a candidate to win the Rajya Sabha seat from AP. The TDP, with just 20 out of 23 MLAs remaining on its side, stands no chance whatsoever.
After Friday's polling, the YSRCP's strength in Rajya Sabha will rise from two to six. From the YSRC, Deputy Chief Minister Pilli Subhash Chandra Bose, Minister Mopidevi Venkata Ramana Rao, realtor A. Ayodhya Rami Reddy and Reliance Industries Senior Group President Parimal Nathwani are in the fray.
Manipur
The Manipur election for the single seat will be worth watching out for. Nine members of the ruling coalition resigned and the opposition Congress is pressing for a no-confidence motion against the N. Biren Singh government. The BJP has fielded Leisemba Sanajaoba, the titular king of Manipur, while the Congress nominee is T. Mangi Babu.
Gujarat
Considering that the effective strength of the Gujarat assembly is reduced to 172, a candidate will require support of minimum 35 MLAs' first preference vote to win, as per the Rajya Sabha election standard formula. Ten assembly seats are currently vacant—eight due to resignations of Congress MLAs and two due to court cases. Unless there is cross-voting, neither the Congress nor the BJP can ensure victories of their second and third candidates respectively.
With 65 MLAs and one independent (Jignesh Mewani) supporting its candidates, the Congress will still need the backing of four more MLAs to win both the seats. While the BJP's House strength is 103, it will require support of 105 MLAs to win the three seats.
The BJP has fielded three candidates—Abhay Bharadwaj, Ramila Bara and Narhari Amin—for the four seats, while the Congress, which has seen desertions in its legislative ranks, has given tickets to two nominees Shaktisinh Gohil and Bharatsinh Solanki.
The faith of the fourth seat will be decided by the two Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) MLAs and one of the NCP. Though Sharad Pawar's NCP had issued a whip to its lone MLA, Kandhal Jadeja, to vote for the Congress, Jadeja attended the BJP's training session on Thursday, giving a clear signal about his choice.
Karnataka
In Karnataka, where elections were to be held for four seats, all the candidates—former prime minister HD Deve Gowda, veteran Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge, BJP candidates Iranna Kadadi and Ashok Gasti—have been declared elected unopposed.
Rajasthan
In Rajasthan, both the ruling Congress and opposition BJP have lodged their legislators in different hotels after accusing each other of poaching MLAs. For the three seats up for grabs, four candidates (two from Congress and as many from BJP) have filed nomination papers. The Congress has nominated K.C. Venugopal and Neeraj Dangi, while the BJP has fielded Rajendra Gehlot and Onkar Singh Lakhawat.
In the house of 200, the Congress has 107 MLAs and has the support of independent MLAs and legislators of other parties like Rashtriya Lok Dal, CPI (M) and Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP). The ruling party has more than enough majority to win two seats and the opposition BJP, which has 72 MLAs and support of three Rashtriya Loktantrik Party MLAs, has the numbers to comfortably win one seat.
Fifty one votes are needed for one candidate to win and the Congress is in a comfortable position to ensure the victory of both of its candidates, while BJP's only one candidate can win as per the numbers. BJP's first candidate is Rajendra Gehlot, the second one being Onkar Singh Lakhawat.
Mizoram
The election to Mizoram's lone seat is likely to witness a triangular contest. The ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) has fielded the party's national core committee member K. Kanlalvena, while the Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) and the Congress nominated B. Lalchhanzova and Lallianchhunga respectively.
In the 40-member Mizoram Assembly, the MNF has 27 members, ZPM seven, Congress five and the BJP has one MLA.
Madhya Pradesh
BJP candidates Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sumer Singh Solanki, and senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh looks set to sail through on the eve of Rajya Sabha election to three seats in Madhya Pradesh. The Congress's other nominee Phool Singh Baraiya, a Dalit leader, however, stands a very slim chance of making it to the upper house of Parliament in the election on Friday.
The BJP has enough MLAs to get elected its two candidates, whereas the Congress Legislature Party (CLP) has asked 54 of its 92 MLAs to cast their first preference vote for Digvijaya. The former chief minister needs 52 votes to get elected to Rajya Sabha for the second consecutive term. Baraiya, placed after Singh in the pecking order by his party, does not have the numbers on his side to win.
Meghalaya
The Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) had put forth the name of NPP state president W R Kharlukhi as the consensus candidate of the ruling coalition for the lone Rajya Sabha seat in the state. The opposition Congress has fielded former legislator Kennedy Khyriem for the seat. The ruling MDA constitutes NPP, United Democratic Party, Peoples Democratic Front, BJP, Hill State Peoples Democratic Party, NCP and three Independents. The Congress has 19 legislators in the 60-member Meghalaya Assembly.
