The 21-day lockdown announced from March 25 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to flatten the COVID-19 pandemic curve, is scheduled to end on Tuesday. According to the latest Union Health Ministry update, as many as 918 COVID-19 cases and 34 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of such cases to 8,447 and the fatalities to 273. It said 765 people have so far recovered from the infection. The number of cases crossed 1,000 in Tamil Nadu, which now joins Maharashtra and Delhi to be the state with the maximum number of positive COVID-19 infections.
So, what will the Centre's decision be on the lockdown? Will it be extended? A broad consensus has emerged that the national lockdown should be extended by at least two weeks after a meeting between PM Modi and state chief ministers. Four states, Telangana, Maharashtra, Punjab and Odisha, have already extended the coronavirus lockdown in their respective territories till April 30. But, now, PM Modi is expected to walk that fine line between lives and livelihood. The government is undertaking measures to contain the health and economic fallout, and the RBI has begun providing calibrated support in the form of policy rate cuts and regulatory forbearance. On Sunday, the World Bank, in its 'South Asia Economic Update: Impact of COVID-19', had said the coronavirus pandemic has severely disrupted the Indian economy, magnifying pre-existing risks to its outlook, predicting the Indian economy to slow down to 2.8 per cent growth in FY 2021.
Restarting the economy in a graded manner
Several chief ministers also have pushed for resumption of some economic activities like in the farming sector in regions with no COVID-19 cases. The Centre, in consultation with states, is moving to restart economic activities in a graded manner in what is seen as a nuanced change in strategy; it focussed on saving lives a month ago, but now has to save lives as well as livelihoods. It has sought inputs related to production, labour and logistics from clusters in five key sectors to ascertain expected output if they are made operational within a fortnight. The five sectors are textiles, chemicals, electronics, steel and pharmaceutical.
States are likely to designate districts, towns and cities as red, orange and green zones depending upon the number of COVID-19 cases as part of efforts to allow differentiated restoration of normalcy. There will be conditions like uses of masks and social distancing in public.
The Karnataka government is studying in-depth the consequences of possible relaxation of lockdown norms after April 14 and plans to come out with a clear roadmap in a day or two, according to Medical Education Minister Sudhakar K.
Kerala, which was the first state in the country to report a coronavirus infection in late January, has prepared a time table for coming out of the lockdown and there would be district-specific strategies to tackle the situation while the number of cases are on the decline. Ramping up efforts to "stamp out" coronavirus cases in the state, Kerala Finance Minister Thomas Isaac said that an exit strategy is being prepared and restrictions are being relaxed in certain segments, including agriculture.
DPIIT recommendations
The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has recommended that certain identified industries and services should be allowed to resume limited activity with reasonable safeguard. In a series of of recommendations to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), the DPIIT said these new activities in wide ranging spheres are essential in any lockdown exit plan to improve the country's economic activity and provide liquidity in the hands of the people.
These new activities are essential to improve the economic activity and provide liquidity in the hands of the people, the DPIIT said in its letter to Home Secretary Ajay Kumar Bhalla. "It is felt that certain more activities with reasonable safeguards should be allowed once a final decision regarding extension and nature of lockdown is taken by the central government," the letter said, making a strong push for these activities in addition to those already allowed under various notifications of the MHA.
The letter also noted that housing and construction sectors need to be allowed if the labourers stay at the sites with all facilities and safeguards. It suggested that all transport vehicles of all sizes, whether inter-state, intra-state or intra-city, need to be allowed, whether empty or full, by all enforcement agencies without asking any question.
It has also asked for certain repairing units like those individuals or small agencies involved in providing repair services in mobile, refrigerator, air conditioner, television, plumbing, cobblers, ironing (dhobi), electrician, automobile mechanics, cycle to be allowed. The department has stated that all street vendors like fruit and vegetable sellers should be allowed by the states in order to improve doorstep delivery and also to provide much needed liquidity to this population.
Push for re-employment of migrant labourers
Union minister Nitin Gadkari said talks are underway with state governments to re-start highway construction projects where migrant labourers can be gainfully employed. In a video-conference with PTI, the road transport, highways and MSME minister said efforts are on for facilitating safe return of migrant labourers, an estimated 20 lakh of whom are in shelters pan-India. "I had a meeting with road sector officials. Work can be restarted at projects with condition that adequate measures are taken for safeguard against coronavirus. We have to follow guidelines. At some places collectors have given permission, some not. We are doing a follow up along with the chief secretaries of the states," the minister said.
Gadkari's comments come against the backdrop of the report by the World Bank that migrants face a stark choice between potentially starving in urban centres without work or long and potentially fatal journeys over hundreds of miles to their home districts. It said that migrant workers returning home could become vectors carrying the coronavirus to unaffected states and villages and that preliminary findings indicated in India many out-migration areas are likely to have COVID-19 cases.
The Centre has asked the state and union territories to take welfare measures for the migrant labourers living in camps in different parts of the country that include food, shelter, medicine, mobile and video call facilities. The Bihar government also reached out and provided relief to over 5 lakh distressed residents of the state stranded in Delhi and other parts of the country.
'Prepared to deal with rise in cases'
The ministry also asserted that the government is "extra prepared" if there is an exponential rise in the number of coronavirus patients. Addressing a press briefing, health ministry's Joint Secretary Lav Agarwal said the government is expanding the COVID-19 testing capacity in state-run as well as private medical colleges. "We are working on an urgent basis to expand the capacity for COVID-19 testing in government and private medical colleges across the country. Fourteen mentor institutes, including the AIIMS and NIMHANS, have been identified to mentor the medical colleges and expand the coronavirus testing capacity," he added. According to ICMR officials, a total of 1,86,906 samples have so far been tested across the country, of which 7,953 have been found positive for COVID-19.
