The White House's tweet announcing the killing of Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Corps' Quds Force in Baghdad, has diminished hope for the new year to be peaceful. The most powerful commander in Iran—he reported directly to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—Soleimani's killing will heighten tensions dangerously in the Middle East. Iran has made its intention clear in the words of the Ayatollah—“severest revenge''.
As diplomats across the world work behind the scenes to avoid a conflict, South Block will have to gear up for a balancing act. The official statement issued by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) reflects just how carefully India has to tread. India deliberately did not name Soleimani, referring to him as a “senior Iranian leader'', and advocated “restraint''.
Also read
- 'We support Israel’s right to defend itself': Rishi Sunak's UK to China, how the world reacted to Iran's drone strike
- Iran's aerial attack on Israel: 5 major developments as over 200 drones shot down by IDF, US forces
- Iran says nuclear talks with world powers will resume in Vienna in a few weeks
- 'Iranians denied free and fair elections': US says after hardline cleric wins Iran prez polls
“The increase in tension has alarmed the world,'' the statement read. “Peace, stability and security in this region is of utmost importance to India. It is vital that the situation does not escalate further,'' it stated.
With America being a close ally, and with India's civilisational links with Iran—foreign minister S. Jaishankar had recently met his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, in Tehran—New Delhi will be at pains to ensure that it keeps both sides happy. While India has reduced its oil imports from Iran—a rather prickly subject between the two countries—the uncertainty in the region has resulted in world oil prices rising by four per cent. Reacting to the volatile situation, the Sensex closed 162 points lower.
But beyond just the optics of a diplomatic distance, the increased hostility between Iran and America can spell trouble for the Chabahar Port project. The project, which India is keen to push forward, had come up for discussion between Jaishankar and Zarif. On the cards was a way to increase connectivity to the port so that it can be used by Central Asia. But with the region in a flux—and with the conflict increasing—the question is how far India will be able to push America to let it continue the project.
The killing of Soleimani comes in the wake of much tension. The situation in the region has been on the boil for a while. Recently, the American Embassy in Baghdad came under attack by protesters. After the attack, which was reminiscent of what happened in the 1979 with protesters shouting slogans against America, Trump had warned that Iran would pay a price. America claimed that Soleimani had approved of the attack.
While the world is waiting for an Iranian reaction, it might not be immediate. “Iran is going to show bravado,'' says Kabir Taneja, Fellow with Strategic Studies programme at the Observor Research Foundation. “It will show intent. But they might not be under a position at the moment for a tit for tat. The economy is reeling under the sanctions. There are protests against the government and I don't think the people will rally around Soleimani for a war.''
