In the absence of a strong opposition, it's advantage National Conference in Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency.
The NC has won the Srinagar Lok Sabha seat nine times out of 12 since 1967.
NC candidate and patron Farooq Abdullah not only has the advantage of a dedicated party cadre spread from Ganderbal to Budgam, the areas making up the Srinagar parliamentary constituency, but also because supporters of the main opposition PDP are angry with their party for forming a coalition government with the BJP that collapsed in June last year.
Three PDP legislators, who are popular in Srinagar, have quit the party. They are Altaf Bukhari, Javid Mustafa and Imran Ansari, a Shia leader. That is likely to affect the performance of PDP candidate Agha Mohsin, also a Shia leader.
A low turnout due to a separatist call for a boycott has also traditionally favoured the NC. Only eight per cent voters showed up in 2017 when a bypoll was held for Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency.
In 2014, PDP candidate Tariq Karra had stunned Farooq Abdullah by defeating him on his home turf in Srinagar by over 40,000 votes.
Karra quit the PDP over the killings and blindings of civilians by firing of pellets by security forces during the mass protests in 2016 that were triggered by the killing of popular Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Muzaffar Wani and two of his associates that year. Karra later joined the Congress. His supporters are also likely to support Farooq as the NC and Congress have formed an alliance to avoid division of votes against the BJP.
The Congress has not fielded any candidate against the NC in Srinagar and Baramulla constituencies to make it easy for the NC to cross the finish line. In return, the NC has not fielded any candidates in Jammu-Poonch and Uddhampur constituencies to help the Congress against the BJP in Jammu. The PDP too has not fielded any candidate in Jammu's two Lok Sabha seats to prevent a split in the Muslim vote.
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Farooq's other rivals in Srinagar are political greenhorns like Irfan Ansari of the Peoples Conference and Khalid Jehangir of the BJP. The two parties command negligible influence in Srinagar. Mohsin, however, could attract some Shia votes.
Farooq has been a strong pillar of the countrywide mahagathbandhan against the BJP and has been taking part in rallies in several states against the saffron party.
The NC is keen to send Farooq to Parliament and leave state politics to his son, party vice president Omar Abdullah, who is also its chief ministerial candidate in the assembly polls that would be held after Parliament elections are over.
