LS polls: Will BJP really gain from dropping all MPs in Chhattisgarh?

The BJP will drop all its 10 sitting Lok Sabha MPs in Chhattisgarh in the upcoming general elections, taking a cue from the public resentment that resulted in a rout of the party in the assembly elections last year.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP swept 10 out of 11 Lok Sabha seats, including five reserved constituencies in the tribal-dominated eastern state. In the assembly polls held late last year, the Congress stormed to power with a three-fourths majority, in a jolt to the BJP. It also ended the saffron party's 15-year rule in Chhattisgarh.

The Congress won 68 seats in the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly. The BJP won only 15 seats in the polls. Since 2003, the BJP had been constantly winning Assembly elections. It was also consistently winning 10 Lok Sabha seats from 2004 onwards.

Though the BJP was on a winning spree, the vote share difference between the Congress and the BJP was indicating a different tale. In 2003, the difference between the vote share of the BJP and the Congress was 2.06 per cent. It slipped to 0.7 per cent in 2013.

The BJP's central think tank was aware of this slide, but chose to ignore it as it underestimated the importance of Chhattisgarh's 11 seats in the vast electoral canvas of the country. Now, not many can doubt that the assembly election outcome will have an impact in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls.

Though many fringe parties were present in the state, they failed to emerge as king-makers. If the votes polled for each constituency prepared by the Election Commission is taken into account, the Congress could win 10 of the 11 Lok Sabha seats. So, the lone Lok Sabha segment where the BJP performed well in the assembly polls is Bilaspur, which the party hasn't lost since 1996.

The two important seats of the state are Durg and Rajnandgaon. Former Chhattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh hails from Rajnandgaon, while his successor, Bhupesh Baghel, has his roots in Durg Lok Sabha Seat. Currently, Rajnandgaon seat is represented by Abhishek Singh of the BJP, the son of Raman Singh.

In the assembly elections, Rajnandagon was the only assembly segment in the parliamentary constituency won by the BJP. Raman Singh won from there, but the Congress won the the remaining seven assembly segments. Of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state, Durg was the only seat that the Congress party had won in 2014, overcoming the Narendra Modi wave.

However, in the 2018 Assembly elections, of the nine assembly segments of the Durg Lok Sabha constituency, the BJP could win only Vaishali Nagar assembly segment. The reason behind the BJP's worst-ever performance is repeated ignorance by Central leaders. As a result three leaders—Ramesh Bais, an OBC leader and MP since 1996; former minister and MLA Brijmohan Agrawal and former MLA Vijay Agarwal—quit the party.

Bais and Agrawal were considered to be close aides of former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and senior BJP leader L.K. Advani. Vijay quit BJP almost a month ahead of the crucial assembly elections in November 2018 on being denied ticket for the second time in a row.

Understanding this reality, the BJP has decided to drop all its 10 sitting lawmakers from Chhattisgarh. Anil Jain, BJP general secretary in-charge of Chhattisgarh, said the party's state unit made the proposal to drop the MPs to the central election committee of the party and got its consent.

The BJP, which is seeking a revival in Chhattisgarh, is expected to field youngsters this time. However, experts say dropping old faces and introducing fresh ones may not yield dividends. "Changing or dropping outgoing MPs in a big way may offer good optics, but it comes with major challenges such as drastic changes in caste equations, local power equilibrium, resource management and reworking of election machinery. Its is always easier said than done at the ground level," feels Rasheed Kidwai, visiting fellow at Observer Research Foundation.

The BJP is expected to announce its candidates for the Lok Sabha polls after Holi. The Congress has announced its candidate for five seats. It is also fielding three of its sitting MLAs.

One important decision brought by the Bhupesh Baghel government is the farm loan waiver. The government also returned the land of farmers acquired in 2008 in Bastar district for a proposed plant of the Tata Group. Baghel's decisions won accolades.

Baghel tweeted that his government was committed towards a sustainable model of development that protects natural resources. Baghel, who got an invite from the UK government to visit the country, said he will speak about the "Narwa, Garwa, Ghurwa, Badi (rivers, livestock, domestic dump and farming)" model of development being implemented by the Congress government.

Baghel had undertaken a statewide padyatra ahead of the assembly elections to help the Congress wrest the state. Minutes after former Chhattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh also added the chowkidar prefix to his Twitter handle, Baghel said in a statement the people of Chhattisgarh were aware of how Raman Singh had done 'chowkidari'. Raman Singh's son-in-law, Dr Punit Gupta, had been named in an FIR in connection with a Rs 50 crore financial forgery case.

Baghel claims that the people in Chhattisgarh had already rejected the BJP, referring to the assembly elections held in November last year. According to senior journalist and columnist Rakesh Dixit, the BJP is likely to fare well in the urban Lok Sabha seats including Bilaspur, Raipur, Rajgarh and Korba.

The Congress is expected to do much better in rural seats, including the Naxal-infested south Bastar.

Polling for the 11 Lok Sabha seats in Chhattisgarh will be conducted in three phases—April 11, April 18 and April 23.

The counting of votes will take place on May 23.

This article was originally published in onmanorama