The bonhomie among the opposition leaders during the 10-minute oath taking ceremony of H. D. Kumaraswamy as Karnataka chief minister in Bengaluru was for everyone to see. Camaraderie between Sonia Gandhi, Mayawati and Mamata Banerjee was particularly eye-catching. But will this show of strength impact BJP's electoral chances?
It was perhaps for the first time that such a large gathering of opposition leaders was seen at one stage. Last time a similar grouping made to newspaper front pages was during the Nitish Kumar swearing-in ceremony in 2015 when the grand alliance trounced the BJP. Kumar had since shifted camps, badly damaging the opposition unity moves.
Now, ahead of the 2019 elections, 'Modi versus All' contest appears to be on cards.
'Modi versus All' election battle can be a double edged sword. The BJP will go to town saying everyone is trying to oppose Narendra Modi as he is fighting for the poor, in order to blunt their charge. This polarisation can work in saffron party's favour.
On the other hand, the Karnataka episode has shaken the saffron party a little. Now, coupled with rising oil prices, a series of banking scams are making even the ardent BJP supporters looking for answers. For the opposition, 'Modi versus All' contest presents an opportunity to tell the people that the prime minister has not been able to bring any change in their condition and hence they decided to team up to oppose Modi.
To counter this, the BJP is preparing to galvanise its cadres to fight the changing perception.
BJP chief Amit Shah rubbished claims of opposition unity. “All the leaders who are getting together were against BJP even during the 2014 elections, barring Andhra CM Chandrababu Naidu. When these leaders are getting together, what will be their influence. How do you think Mamata Banerjee will have an influence in Bengaluru, or Akhilesh in Madhya Pradesh. BJP's strength in intact. The party will return with even bigger mandate in 2019,” Shah said.
After Karnataka, bigger tests are coming for the BJP in its three states—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh—ruled by the saffron party itself. The party would need even greater management to tide over anti-incumbency.
Interestingly, PM Modi is holding a rally in Baghpat on May 27, a day ahead of the Lok Sabha bypoll in the adjacent Kairana in Uttar Pradesh. The PM will be inaugurating the Eastern Peripheral Highways project in the state. After debacle in Gorakhpur and Phulpur bypolls, the BJP is using its trump card— Modi—in the Kairana bypoll to be held on May 28.
The opposition leaders need to move beyond the optics. They would need astute political moves combined with election management to counter BJP's superior war machinery.