India’s energy story has always been shaped by a simple reality, we import most of what we consume, and global markets decide the price we pay for growth. That has worked in periods of stability. But today, with rising tensions in the Middle East and increasing uncertainty around global supply routes, that equation is under real pressure. Energy security is no longer a long-term policy discussion; it is a day-to-day economic priority.
India imports nearly 88-89 per cent of its crude oil, and close to half of that is still linked to the Middle East. For years, this concentration made sense because the region offered scale and proximity. But what we are seeing now is how quickly that stability can be disrupted. Even the risk of escalation around critical routes like the Strait of Hormuz is enough to move global prices, increase freight costs, and force supply chains to reset almost in real time.
And when oil moves, everything moves. A $10 per barrel increase doesn’t stay confined to energy markets, it flows directly into inflation, import bills, currency pressure, and ultimately into everyday economic decisions. For a growing economy like India, these shocks don’t remain external for long; they become internal constraints very quickly. That is why energy has clearly moved beyond infrastructure, it is now central to macroeconomic stability.
What is changing today is not just the challenge, but the speed of response. India is consciously widening its crude sourcing base beyond the Middle East, with countries in Latin America and Africa, like Brazil, Nigeria, and Angola, becoming more relevant. This is not a tactical shift. It is about building optionality in a world where certainty in supply can no longer be assumed.
At the same time, something more structural is unfolding. The shift to clean energy is no longer being driven only by climate commitments. It is increasingly about resilience. Renewable energy already contributes over 20 per cent of India’s electricity generation, and that share is steadily rising. Solar and wind are no longer “alternatives” in the system, they are becoming core pillars of how India will power its future.
Electric mobility is one of the clearest signals of this change. EV adoption is no longer just a sustainability narrative; it is becoming a direct response to oil dependence. Transport is one of the most fuel-intensive parts of the economy, and every shift from imported oil to locally generated electricity reduces exposure to global volatility. We are seeing this most clearly in two-wheelers and commercial fleets, where usage is high and economics matter the most. That is where the transition is actually becoming real, not theoretical.
Alongside this, renewables are increasingly being treated as strategic infrastructure. Every additional gigawatt of solar or wind is not just about clean power, it is about reducing import dependence and insulating the economy from geopolitical shocks. Green hydrogen, battery storage, and even nuclear energy are gradually moving from pilots into long-term planning, which tells you how seriously the energy mix is being rethought.
On the demand side, the shift is gradual but compounding. EV adoption, efficiency improvements, and early-stage electrification across industries are steadily reducing the oil intensity of GDP. Individually, these changes look small. But over a decade, they fundamentally alter how dependent the economy is on imported energy.
From where I see it, the direction is fairly clear. These geopolitical tensions are not creating a new transition; they are accelerating one that was already underway. India is moving from dependence to diversification, and gradually towards a system where more of its energy needs are met domestically, either through generation or electrification.
And that shift, while still in progress, is no longer optional. It is becoming structural.
The author is chairman and managing director of Tunwal E-Motors Ltd
