Russian analysts reveal true intentions behind Trump's oil statement: ‘To raise his stake’

As US President Donald Trump’s statement that Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil continues to make waves, Russian analysts have attempted to decode the true intentions behind the US President's claims, which India has denied, albeit with caution.

Russian political analysts consider Trump’s rhetoric as a bid to push Russia toward a more accommodating stance on the peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. Economist Andrei Barkhota said Trump had ulterior motives in making the statement, which is “to raise the stakes to improve his negotiating position”.

“Furthermore, the American side would like to polarise India and China, portraying China as an implacable opponent and India, in principle, as more flexible," Barkhota told Russian media RTVI.

Interestingly, just a day after Trump’s remarks about India, he announced that he would meet Russia's Vladimir Putin in an effort to end the war in Ukraine. Trump wrote on social media that the meeting would take place in Budapest, Hungary.

Barkhota believes, regardless of Trump's promises, nothing will change in reality and India will continue to buy Russian oil. “When Trump says he's banned India from buying Russian oil, it could also mean that India is secretly using bypasses to label its oil, while simultaneously importing that same Russian oil through these gaskets," the expert emphasised.

Dmitry Suslov, deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, too, believes that the US President’s aim was to weaken the Russian-Indian partnership. “Trump simply wants to shape the agenda in his favour. It's perfectly clear that the Indians haven't made any commitments, and India has already stated that it is, in principle, focusing on its national interests and diversifying supplies," Suslov told Russian media News.Ru.

He added that Washington is trying to put pressure not only on India but also on Russia. "The White House wants to get India to commit to reducing its imports of Russian oil as a condition for concluding a trade deal," Suslov said, adding that Washington will continue to put pressure on India.

He also cited India’s willingness to withstand American pressure as demonstrated by Delhi's reaction to the introduction of an additional 25 percent tariff last summer. "Instead of meeting the US President halfway, Modi flew to the SCO summit, where he met with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. The result was the most acute crisis in US-Indian relations in the last quarter century, or even longer. There's no point in even talking about Delhi making concessions that would run counter to Indian national interests," the expert concluded.

The report also quoted Sergei Altukhov, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma  Committee on Economic Policy, who described both Trump's statements and India's reaction as a classic example of a modern diplomatic game where economic interests collide with geopolitics.