Syria may be only weeks away from "collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions", US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned, urging swift international support for the country’s fragile transitional authorities. His stark assessment came during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing in Washington, just days after President Donald Trump made the highly controversial decision to lift longstanding US sanctions on Syria.
Rubio's warning was proof that there is significant concern within the US administration about the precarious state of Syria following the overthrow of president Bashar al-Assad. The Islamist-led rebellion, spearheaded by the former al-Qaeda commander Ahmed al-Sharaa and his coalition, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), brought an end to Assad’s brutal 13-year rule. But post-Assad Syria has witnessed rising sectarian violence and mounting distrust among minority groups.
The US had imposed sanctions on Syria under the Caesar Act in response to atrocities committed by the Assad regime, which left over six lakh dead and displaced more than 1.2 crore people. Though initially resistant to easing sanctions without firm guarantees of minority protections, the Trump administration reversed course last week, citing a desire to facilitate humanitarian aid and regional cooperation.
Trump met President Al Sharaa in Saudi Arabia during a summit of Gulf leaders. Despite the Syrian leader's controversial past—he remains listed by the US as a “specially designated global terrorist”—Trump described him as a “young, attractive guy… a fighter” and praised his potential to stabilise the war-torn country. Al Sharaa, in turn, hailed the lifting of sanctions as a “historic and courageous decision” that would help “alleviate the suffering of the people” and lay the foundations for a more stable future.
Nevertheless, concerns about the new transitional leadership persist. HTS, which dominates the government, is still designated as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union. Despite promises to protect religious and ethnic minorities, recent months have witnessed alarming outbreaks of sectarian violence.
In March, nearly 900 civilians—mostly Alawites—were killed during clashes between security forces and loyalist militias in the western coastal region. Pro-Assad loyalists reportedly killed over 450 civilians and 170 members of the transitional security forces. Then in May, over 100 people were killed in fighting involving Druze gunmen, Sunni Islamist fighters and government forces in the suburbs of Damascus and the southern province of Suweida.
Many minorities remain deeply distrustful of the new government. Rubio acknowledged these tensions, blaming Assad for having deliberately pitted Syria’s diverse communities against each other. He also warned of a resurgent Islamic State in areas outside government control and accused Iran of attempting to reassert influence through Assad-era networks.
Rubio sought to justify the administration’s rapid policy shift: “Nations in the region want to get aid in, want to start helping them, and they can’t because they are afraid of our sanctions.” He confirmed that the Trump administration plans to waive provisions of the Caesar Act temporarily to allow investment and humanitarian engagement. However, he noted that Syria remains on the US list of state sponsors of terrorism—a major legal and diplomatic barrier to full normalisation.
The European Union has followed Washington’s lead. EU foreign ministers voted unanimously on May 20 to lift economic sanctions on Syria. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, wrote on X: “We want to help the Syrian people rebuild a new, inclusive and peaceful Syria. The EU has always stood by Syrians throughout the last 14 years—and will keep doing so.” Diplomats said the decision would unfreeze central bank assets and reintegrate Syrian banks into the global financial system, though targeted sanctions on individuals involved in ethnic violence would remain.
In Damascus, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani welcomed his Jordanian counterpart, declaring “the doors are open” for international investment. The foreign ministry hailed the EU’s move as “the beginning of a new chapter in Syrian-European relations built on shared prosperity and mutual respect”.
While critics remain sceptical of engaging a government led by a former jihadist, Rubio argued that engagement was the only viable path forward. “The bad news is the transitional authority figures didn’t pass their background check with the FBI,” he quipped. “But if we engage them, it may work out, it may not work out. If we do not engage them, it is guaranteed to not work out.”
Yet he was quite pessimistic about Syria’s immediate future. “We are looking at the very real possibility of Syria fracturing again, and this time there may be no stitching it back together,” Rubio warned the senators. “The cost of standing back is collapse, chaos, and the return of a war that could make the last one look like a prelude.”