Thin margins, big stakes: Understanding Puducherry's high-octane electoral dynamics

Coalition pressures, political rivalries and electoral arithmetic make the Puducherry Assembly polls unpredictable

29-V-Vaithilingam Big battle: V. Vaithilingam, chief minister candidate of the Congress-led INDIA bloc, campaigning in Thattanchavady | R.G. Sastha

The yellow-and-white facade of French colonial buildings, artistic cafes and serene beaches offer an escape from life’s monotony. As the blistering sun dips into the horizon, an air of peace and quiet envelops the quaint town and its rich heritage. Tourists stroll along the beach, but just a few kilometres away, the mood shifts dramatically. The narrow lanes of Thattanchavady, a neighbourhood in the Union territory of Puducherry, is getting ready for an electrifying electoral battle.

The winning margins can be very thin, with each constituency having between 30,000 and 50,000 voters. In a triangular contest, even a margin of 25 to 50 votes could prove decisive.

As dusk settles, Chief Minister and All India NR Congress (AINRC) leader N. Rangasamy arrives near the Putlaye Mariamman temple at Thattanchavady to launch his campaign. Hours earlier, his arch rival and former chief minister V. Vaithilingam had offered prayers at the temple before he launched his own campaign. Vaithilingam is the chief minister candidate of the Congress-led INDIA bloc; Rangasamy leads the NDA as its face in Puducherry.

“I delivered what I promised,” said the 77-year-old Rangasamy, standing inside his campaign van, microphone in hand. “The governance of Puducherry cannot be entrusted to parties that cannot even work together to decide which seats to contest. They are fighting each other in several constituencies and still call themselves a bloc.”

Contesting from Thattanchavady and Mangalam—two strategically significant constituencies—Rangasamy heads the NDA comprising the BJP, the AIADMK and the newly formed Latchiya Jananayaga Katchi (LJK), floated by lottery king Santiago Martin’s son Jose Charles Martin. The AINRC is contesting 16 seats, the BJP 12, and the AIADMK and the LJK two each.

Scheduled for April 9, the Puducherry elections are driven less by ideology and more by personalities, local equations, caste dynamics and money power—mainly because the Union territory has just 30 constituencies and 9.44 lakh voters. Once again, despite multi-party alliances on both sides, the contest is largely between Puducherry’s two most popular politicians: Rangasamy and Vaithilingam. The entry of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) has now turned the battle into a triangular contest.

Calling it a “friendly fight”, the Congress has fielded parallel candidates in at least six constituencies. The resultant strain on the alliance is likely to help the NDA, which is facing anti-incumbency. In Puducherry, the winning margins can be very thin, with each constituency having between 30,000 and 50,000 voters. In a triangular contest, even a margin of 25 to 50 votes could prove decisive. The April 9 elections will determine whether Rangasamy retains power, whether the Congress-led alliance can capitalise on anti-incumbency, or whether Vijay’s TVK can spring a surprise.

A total of 254 candidates are contesting across 30 constituencies. The BJP is fielding candidates in 12 seats, the AINRC in 16, the AIADMK in two, the DMK in 13, the Congress in 22, the CPI(M) in two, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi in four and the CPI in one. However, seat-sharing talks dragged on until after nominations closed. Despite the Congress promising to take action against rebels, many of them are still in the fray, dimming the prospects for its alliance partners.

The “friendly fight” persists in constituencies such as Nellithope, Kalapet, Muthialpet, Thattanchavady and Ozhukarai. Notably, Thattanchavady is where Vaithilingam is staking his claim for the chief minister’s post.

“Our leadership in Delhi did not even hear our grievances. The in-charge Girish Chodankar, who lacked knowledge about Puducherry, added to the confusion,” said a Congress leader on condition of anonymity. He added that the party had already weakened because of issues created by former Union minister V. Narayanasamy.

The uneasiness in the alliance is rooted in electoral arithmetic. The DMK, which contested 13 seats and won six in 2021, believes it can ride to victory on an anti-incumbency wave. With the VCK and the CPI(M) as its allies, it considers at least 11 seats winnable. Such a result would place the DMK close to one-third of the assembly strength—enough to emerge as the dominant party in the coalition, a scenario that would make the Congress uncomfortable.

However, the Congress’s parallel candidates have disrupted the strategy. The VCK has fielded candidates in additional seats, while the CPI(M) has expanded its presence and is supporting an independent in Mahe. “Ours is a winning alliance, but given the situation, we had to chart our own course,” said VCK leader Thol. Thirumavalavan.

The proliferation of candidates has dented the INDIA bloc’s prospects. “We will emerge victorious. Those who defied the high command will face action,” said Narayanasamy.

But personal loyalty and money remain the most important factors. In a Union territory where voter turnout in most constituencies ranges from 20,000 to 25,000, campaigns are often marked by allegations of cash-for-votes, with voters reportedly receiving Rs5,000 and Rs7,000 along with household items such as mixers, grinders and refrigerators.

Despite all this, the contest in Thattanchavady has turned tough. Rangasamy faces anti-incumbency over issues like the demand for statehood, the privatisation of the electricity department, and youth unemployment. The statehood promise—along with the high-profile contest between Narayanasamy and former lieutenant governor Kiran Bedi in 2021—had contributed to Rangasamy’s victory in the previous election. This time, he is up against Vaithilingam, who is known for his grassroots connect.

What could also worry Rangasamy is the fact that the BJP is eyeing the CM’s post. If he fails to win either Thattanchavady or Mangalam, the BJP has positioned former home minister A. Nammassivayam—also a relative of Rangasamy—as a potential alternative.

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