The BJP won Goa because of two reasons—the loyal saffron voter and the division of the anti-BJP vote between the Congress, the Trinamool Congress and the AAP. While the BJP won 20, one short of majority, the Congress got only 11, six short of its 2017 tally.
Chief Minister Pramod Sawant won his third election, but with a thin margin. He defeated the Congress’s Dharmesh Saglani, who, many believed, had the tacit support of the BJP’s Vishwajit Rane, who seems to have chief ministerial ambitions. Rane and wife, Divya, won Valpoi and Poriem.
“I was campaigning in all the constituencies and hardly got a day to spend in my constituency,” said Sawant. “My entire campaign was conducted by our party cadre in Sanquelim.”
Raju Nayak, editorial director of the Gomantak group of newspapers, told THE WEEK that the BJP benefited from the politics of bahujan samaj. “The chief minister made sure that bahujan communities were wooed aggressively,” he said. “Their views and aspirations were taken into consideration. Another important point is the increasing presence of migrants (who have now become residents and voters in Goa) in all constituencies. These people have favoured the BJP.”
Apparently, the BJP’s promise of a “double-engine” push for development won over the fence-sitters.
On the other side, the Congress’s state leadership seemed to be too proud and did not form alliances in advance. “State party president Girish Chodankar kept saying that the Congress will win on its own because of the anti-incumbency of 10 years,” said Nayak. “It was veteran Digambar Kamat who convinced the party’s central leadership that an alliance with players like the Goa Forward Party was necessary. If not for that alliance, the Congress would have dropped to single digits.”
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The AAP’s win in two seats—Velim and Benaulim—has also been an interesting development. The party’s hard work since the previous elections has borne fruit in the Christian-majority Salcete region. It is also a warning sign for the Congress that it cannot take the minority vote for granted; Salcete had been its stronghold.
The aggressive “Goa for Goans” politics of the Revolutionary Goans Party helped it win one seat—St. Andre. It would be interesting to see if the BJP can get the party’s support for its government.
Another highlight was the Trinamool’s poor showing despite its high-pitched campaign. Even former chief minister Churchill Alemao lost in Benaulim; he came third. His daughter, Valanka, also lost in Navelim.
The Trinamool’s ally, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party, won two seats. The BJP has said that it has won over two of the three independents, and would even accommodate the MGP. This could be crucial in the selection of the chief minister. Currently, Sawant and Rane are the frontrunners. The Dhavalikar brothers, who run the MGP, are friendly with Rane.