US: A desperate speakership risks giving extreme power to fringe elements

American democracy was in physical danger two years ago as rioters attacked the US Capitol. A year later, the risk is structural, and the danger is legislative ignominy. The coalition of votes that would give Republican leader Kevin McCarthy a possible victory into the speakership was cobbled together by stunning concessions by McCarthy to holdouts that could make it difficult to govern.

From criticising Trump's incitement of the violent insurrection designed to stop the certification of Joe Biden as president a year ago, McCarthy made a 180-turn and flew down to Mar-a-Lago to shake Trump's hand and effectively kiss his ring, setting aside his own words and the patriotic principles of his January 6, 2021, words in order to ingratiate himself into support for his candidacy for the speakership of the US House of Representatives.

Now, many in his party and in Congress see that McCarthy has been compromising principle and honour to gain the speakership that he has given away the office's power in a way that not only diminishes his own eventual power, the power of his party, and the ability of the American political system to work effectively to produce the budgets and legislation to move forward the country's operation. McCarthy has placated all whims but his own, yet fallen short of the support he needed for an outright victory. The result: More negotiations, more concessions, more power in the hands of the few holdouts.

There is a connection between the events of January 6, 2021, and the dysfunction in the Republican faction now leading to an inability for Congress to go forward together. Trump's unwillingness to accept defeat in a democratic process and McCarthy's embrace of election denialism as the standard of Republicanism are now projecting themselves onto the American screen—a candidate for speaker unwilling to accept defeat himself, and seemingly with no limits as to what he is willing to do in order to get that power.

And the difficulty the Republican is facing in securing the speakership is a result of the close results in the recent congressional elections. Traditionally, the party in power in the White House has lost many seats in Congress. Last year, however, Biden's party retained the Senate and lost the House by a margin of 222 to 215, a disappointing result for Republicans who had hoped to gain a majority of 40 to 60 seats.

This meant that McCarthy could not ignore the few House members who could give him the speakership, thus began a carnival show of trade-offs for votes that has resulted in the current impasse.

The recent deadlock in Congress, which has not occurred since pre-Civil War years, has already caused significant disruptions in the functioning of Congress. As a result, lawmakers have been unable to be sworn in, the adoption of new rules for the chamber has been delayed, and it has become difficult to carry out legislative work. It has been 201 years since there was such lack of consensus in the American chamber.

Many Republican members of Congress have expressed frustration that this deadlock has prevented them from fulfilling their promise to begin a series of oversight investigations as their first priority upon gaining power. Others say that it would be impossible to run the House under the rules that McCarthy has been agreeing to in order to secure support for his speakership.

Friday marks the fourth straight day of House Republicans trying to reach an agreement.

Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries, elected with the support of 100 per cent of the vote from members of his party, called on House Republicans “to get along with each other so we can get along with the business of the American people."
"Tip O'Neill got along with Ronald Reagan. Ted Kennedy got along with Orrin Hatch. Joe Biden got along with John McCain. Nancy Pelosi got along with John Boehner. All we are asking is House Republicans to get along with each other.”

Tip O'Neill was a powerful Democratic speaker and bitter political enemy to Ronald Reagan, but the two of them found a way to come together and work through differences. That spirit of putting aside differences for the good of the country is largely absent in American politics in 2023.

McCarthy ended the third day of voting defeats signaling that he had reached an agreement with enough of his party's elected members to achieve victory. If he fails to secure enough votes Friday, he will have betrayed himself to a humiliating level and failed to be rewarded for it.

He has promised much desired prime committee assignments and chairmanships to get the votes of this or that congressman; he has also agreed to allow a Motion to Vacate the speakership to move forward with the threshold of just one member, meaning a single member of the House could move to put an end McCarthy's speakership at any time, a Damocles' sword over a McCarthy speakership.

Donald Trump, who was coy in his support of McCarthy, took to calling him “My Kevin,” adding to the humiliation to the would-be speaker as he threw his full support, reportedly even calling on House members to rally votes.

But Trump's words have had no impact on the votes. McCarthy failed to pick up a single new vote.

The situation also marks a significant waning of Trump's power to influence Republicans. The former president has tried just as desperately to make himself important in deciding the Speaker's election only to be ignored by his own hand-picked elected members of Congress.

It is two years since the day McCarthy picked up the phone to call Trump to save his life from the attack of his supporters, two years since his call was ignored by Trump. Nearly two years since he sold his soul to Trump to get the votes of his supporters on this day, McCarthy now finds Trump's supporters ignoring him, just as Trump did on this very day in 2021.

Until a new speaker is chosen, US House members cannot be sworn in. The US Constitution states that members of the US House of Representatives serve a term of two years. This means that at the end of every two-year Congress, a new House must be sworn in and the previous one comes to an end. According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), this is because the House is not a continuous body.

On the first day of a new Congress, which usually takes place on January 3, the House follows a set of established procedures. These include electing and swearing in the House Speaker, as well as other administrative officers, and adopting rules of procedure and administrative resolutions. The House Speaker is typically sworn in by the member with the longest continuous service, also known as the Dean of the House. The Speaker then administers the oath to the rest of the members.

If no Speaker is chosen, incoming House members are unable to take the oath or be sworn in on the House floor, according to the US Code of Law. It states that "no member shall be sworn or shall take his seat until the Speaker shall have been chosen."

It is the monster that Trump created, a party unwilling to listen to authority, a party in his own image seeking to score by bombast rather than methodical work, a party made of individuals who can raise funds by grandstanding and who can operate independently of the establishment as Trump was able to do.

Now Trump himself cannot control it.