Muammar Gaddafi thought he was invincible, but he did not have nuclear weapons to back those delusions. The Libyan leader was deposed and killed. Saddam Hussein, too, thought no one could beat him. He challenged the US in a direct war, but, he, too, did not have nukes. Like his Libyan brother, Saddam was also overthrown, and later hanged. North Korea's Kim Jong-un seems to have learned his history lessons well. Despite harsh sanctions against him and his country, Kim never abandoned his nuclear programme and weapons delivery systems. US President Donald Trump once threatened to rain down fire and fury on him. But Kim never gave up. On March 8, his steadfastness and judgement were rewarded. After he made an offer to talk directly to Trump, the US president agreed readily. If it materialises, it would be the first instance of a sitting US president holding a one-on-one meeting with a North Korean dictator.
The unconventional diplomatic manoeuvre took the whole world by surprise. Usually, a summit featuring the president of the United States with the leader of a country which is a sworn enemy happens only after an enormous amount of legwork. Take the case of the Iran nuclear negotiations, for instance, Barack Obama did not meet the Iranian president even after hundreds of hours of negotiations between senior officers and diplomats of both countries. The senior-most American leader to handle the negotiations was secretary of state John Kerry. Here, in the case of North Korea, Trump has taken a huge gamble by accepting an invitation to talk to Kim.
The announcement was made by South Korean National Security Adviser Chung Eui-Yong outside the White House. Chung was leading a South Korean delegation to the White House to brief US National Security Advisor H.R.McMaster about the recent peace overtures with North Korea and the meeting of senior South Korean ministers with Kim. McMaster took the delegation to the Oval Office, where Trump was in a meeting with Defence Secretary James Mattis and White House Chief of Staff John Kelly. The president was subsequently told about Kim's offer to meet with him. Trump readily agreed, although after a quick word with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Japanese President Shinzo Abe. According to a CNN report, Trump could not contain his excitement. He went to the press briefing room, from where he has never addressed the press after becoming president, and found a few journalists there, as they were waiting for the big announcement on trade tariffs and the president's affair with Stormy Daniels. Trump surprised them by saying that there would be a major announcement by South Korea on Kim.
Trump's sudden move sent the White House staff into a tizzy. Because of protocol issues, the South Korean NSA was not allowed to address the media from the White House briefing room. Instead, he was given a set of microphones fixed in the White House driveway, from where Chung made the announcement. “In a meeting in Pyongyang on Monday, DPRK leader [Kim] had expressed his eagerness to meet President Trump as soon as possible.... President Trump has reportedly accepted the invitation and meet Kim Jong-un by May,” he said. Chung also said North Korea had agreed to refrain from missile and nuclear testing and did not object to the upcoming military exercise involving South Korea and the US.
Following the announcement, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders tweeted that Trump had accepted the invitation. “He will accept the invitation to meet w/Kim Jong Un at a place & time to be determined. We look forward to the denuclearisation of NK. In the meantime, all sanctions & maximum pressure must remain.” A while later, Trump also tweeted, confirming the meeting.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in said the proposed summit would be a “historical milestone for creating peace in the Korean peninsula. “The complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula will enter a full-fledged track if US President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un conduct an inter-Korean summit,” he said.
Moon has been relentlessly pursuing a path of peace ever since he took over as president. Immediately after he assumed presidency, Moon had to face missile tests and provocative statements from the North, but he stood firm. He, however, was cautious enough not to antagonise the North Korean dictator further. He also kept Trump in good humour and continued to praise him publicly even when the US president threatened him with pulling out of the US-South Korea free trade agreement. Moon spotted an opportunity for peace in Kim's New Year address and used the Winter Olympics hosted by his country to further improve ties with the North. At Pyeongchang, there was a 500-member team from the North and they marched together with the South contingent during the inaugural ceremony. The two countries even fielded a joint ice hockey team. Kim had sent his sister Kim Yo-jong to South Korea during the games and she conveyed her brother's invitation to President Moon for a summit in Pyongyang.
Early this week, Moon sent a delegation headed by Chung and his intelligence chief to Pyongyang. The delegation, which flew on a rare direct flight from Seoul, met the senior Northern leadership and discussed how to take the peace process forward. According to unnamed sources, Kim hosted a dinner for the visiting delegation in which local delicacies were served and local wine flowed freely. Kim even joked about himself during the dinner. The two countries also decided to set up a hotline between Kim and Moon and a summit meeting could take place next month.
China's reaction to the possibility of a direct meeting between Trump and Kim has been interesting. For decades, China has been the most important interlocutor in the issue. From 2003 to 2009, China had hosted the six-party talks with North Korea in which the US, South Korea, Japan and Russia were also participants. It might rankle China that it is not part of the latest developments. In its editorial today, the party run Global Times said that, being a major power, it was unnecessary for China to worry about North Korea turning to the US. “Chinese people should stay calm and remain poised, and avoid the mentality that China is being marginalised,” said the editorial. Officially, China has welcomed the initiative. But it is unlikely to be happy in losing a major bargaining chip in its relationship with the US, Japan and South Korea.
For the US, on the other hand, the challenge is to set realistic parameters for the dialogue, taking into account the concerns of two of its most important allies in the region, South Korea and Japan. Right from deciding where the meeting will take place—Washington, New York, Pyongyang, the Korean Demilitarised Zone, the neutral Switzerland, or even the president's own Mar-a-lago resort are being speculated upon as likely venues—there are lots of issues that need to be sorted out.
The most important challenge, however, is to gauge what Kim has in mind. North Korea has repeatedly said in the past that it was willing to negotiate with the US once it has developed a credible nuclear arsenal. If that is the reason behind the North's unexpected offer for talks, then it is going to negotiate from a position of strength. On the other hand, if what forced the North to talk is the bite of the sanctions imposed on it, the US will have more room to manoeuvre. In any case, the US needs to factor in the role of China, either as an enabler or as a spoiler, and also the special relationship it shares with South Korea and Japan, while determining its course of action.
Finally, both Kim and Trump are mavericks and are unpredictable. They could rewrite history and resolve one of the most vexing post-war geopolitical crises. They could, however, also burn the available bridges and leave the world an even more dangerous place.