Pakistan has clearly emerged as the key mediator in the efforts to secure a peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif began a four-day diplomatic tour on April 15, visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey to align regional support, discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz and address Tehran’s demands for war reparations. At the same time, Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir travelled to Tehran last evening with a key delegation, including Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi. Munir conveyed a message from Washington to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who praised Islamabad’s role and reiterated Iran’s commitment to regional stability.
Munir’s growing importance as an intermediary has drawn public praise from Donald Trump, who described him as a “fantastic” field marshal. President Asif Ali Zardari has also urged continued engagement with key powers to sustain momentum. As a result, both US and Iranian officials are considering Islamabad as the venue for the next round of talks, with Geneva as a fallback option.
As the two-week ceasefire is set to expire soon, reports suggested Washington had formally sought an extension. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt denied this, though she confirmed that an extension remains possible. She described the talks as “productive and ongoing”, with the administration optimistic about a deal. Trump has echoed that optimism, suggesting the conflict could end quickly, either through a negotiated settlement allowing Iran to rebuild or through a US military withdrawal after what he characterised as significant damage inflicted.
The urgency reflects the failure of a gruelling first round of negotiations in Islamabad, where US Vice President JD Vance met Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf for 21 hours without a breakthrough. Vance ultimately walked out, citing Iran’s refusal to commit to abandoning nuclear weapons ambitions. The core dispute remains Iran’s nuclear programme. Washington has demanded a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment, while Tehran has offered a moratorium of less than a decade.
Differences also persist over Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Tehran has proposed diluting it to extend breakout timelines, but the US insists on complete removal. Despite the impasse, Iran has indicated it prefers Vance to continue leading the US delegation, signalling distrust of Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner.
Alongside diplomacy, a parallel economic and maritime confrontation is intensifying. The US has imposed a naval blockade on vessels linked to Iranian ports in response to Iran’s near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies.
Iran has responded with escalating warnings. Major General Ali Abdollahi threatened to block trade across the Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Red Sea if US restrictions continue. The situation has alarmed China, Iran’s largest oil customer, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi urging Tehran to ensure freedom of navigation.
Economic pressure is also mounting. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has launched “Operation Economic Fury”, ending sanctions waivers that allowed limited purchases of Iranian and Russian oil and targeting additional entities tied to Tehran. He has already warned about secondary sanctions, calling the measure as the financial equivalent of a bombing campaign.
Iran also seems to feel the pressure. Following attacks on its major energy facilities, Tehran is forced to put exports on hold. Meanwhile, US markets have rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hitting record levels.
The diplomatic track is further complicated by the parallel Israel–Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon. Iran has made a halt to Israeli operations a precondition for further talks. Ghalibaf has insisted that Washington must ensure a ceasefire in Lebanon, framing Iran and its regional allies as acting in concert.
Israel, however, shows no sign of de-escalation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to continue operations against Hezbollah, including in Bint Jbeil, while expanding Israel’s security zone in southern Lebanon. IDF Chief Eyal Zamir has designated areas south of the Litani River as active combat zones. Although Washington and Beirut have explored opening direct negotiations, Hezbollah has already rejected any outcomes from such talks.
Meanwhile, Trump retains broad military latitude at home after the US Senate rejected, for a fourth time, a resolution to limit presidential war powers in Iran.
