The humiliation suffered by Iran at the hands of Israel has altered the power structure in the Islamic Republic. The defeat and subsequent weakening of the regime have turned into a fodder for the emergence of a new generation of ruling elite: hardliners who are unwilling to compromise on the nuclear programme, according to analysts.
The 12-day war with Israel and the US weakened the institutions of the Islamic Republic and tarnished the leadership position of Ali Khamenei, unlike the war with Iraq, analysts Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh write in The Wall Street Journal. Gerecht is a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA, while Takeyh is an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations.
The setback paved the way for the emergence of a new generation of less well-known, radical forces, many of whom have emerged from among the IRGC's middle commanders and groups such as the Perseverance Front. The analysts claim the new generation has “no motivation to explain its goals and beliefs” and is more active in security and parallel structures.
They consider violence against Iranian citizens legitimate, but also have a fundamental commitment to two things: building a nuclear bomb and continuing the path of Qassem Soleimani in the region, the duo argues.
While the war has weakened the proxies, the emerging extremists will pursue the nuclear programme and proxy war in the region in covert and scattered ways, Gerecht and Takeyh argue.
The analysts warn Israel and the United States that Iran will now turn to building smaller centres in buildings rather than huge underground facilities.
“The Islamic Republic has launched a wave of internal purges to eliminate spies so that no obstacle remains in the way of these programs. Although these measures will temporarily cripple nuclear projects, they will ultimately enable a covert program that neither Israel nor the United States will be able to contain,” they argue.
Gerecht and Takeyh also highlight Iran’s efforts to awaken patriotic sentiments among the general public after the war to unite against foreign forces, which have failed. They argue that the Islamic Republic’s unbridled violence to suppress women and freedom has “ irreparably severed the bond between society and the government” that even Israeli and American bombings will not restore this bond.
The analysts claim that the newly empowered forces of the IRGC define themselves not by their connection to society but by their readiness for maximum suppression of the people.
They also question whether Israel had enough information about the new political elite to be able to undermine them. They also question whether Mossad has people in key positions in Iran who are willing to risk their lives and those of their loved ones to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons.
