Though the main battle in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections is between the BJP-led NDA and the Samajwadi Party-led INDIA Alliance, the emergence of a potential third front could alter political equations. Speculations are that Bhim Army founder and Nagina MP Chandrashekhar Azad and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) national president Asaduddin Owaisi could join hands to face the crucial elections in the key state.
Though neither Owaisi nor Azad has confirmed the rumours, the buzz is that the proposed tie-up is likely to be formally announced at a press event in Lucknow on Thursday. Talks are also underway to bring more fringe parties and leaders into the proposed alliance. If that materialises, the alliance could work to consolidate the state’s 40 per cent Dalit-Muslim vote bank. This has caused a significant uproar in the opposition camp, as both communities are traditionally a core vote bank for the Samajwadi Party and the BSP.
Owaisi is reportedly eyeing at least 40–45 Muslim-majority seats and has intensified his campaign. He will officially launch an election rally on Saturday from Meerut's Nauchandi Maidan. His bid to join the INDIA bloc to fight the BJP was snubbed by the SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, who wants to keep the AIMIM at arm’s length and prevent it from gaining a foothold among Muslim voters. Owaisi may not have taken the snub well and would hope to replicate his Bihar success, where his party won five seats in the Muslim-dominated border areas. It contested the elections alone after efforts to enter into a seat-sharing arrangement with the Mahagathbandhan were rebuffed.
But UP is not Bihar, and in 2022, the party had a dismal performance, with four of its candidates in Meerut district failing even to cross the 5,000 mark. Unlike in Bihar, where Muslims form a decisive bloc in several contiguous constituencies in the Seemanchal area, the votes are spread across multiple regions in Uttar Pradesh, including Rohilkhand, western UP, parts of Awadh, and eastern districts. The Muslim voters here could prioritise electoral effectiveness over identity-based representation and could vote for the SP.
As for Chandrashekhar, he has already signalled a big push, eyeing as many Dalit votes as he can. The BSP’s weakness in Dalit politics has certainly opened up a void, which is currently being capitalised on by the SP. Azad continues to carve out his space in Dalit politics; the coalition with Owaisi’s party could impact the opposition's social arithmetic.
Many criticise Akhilesh Yadav for his Dalit outreach, calling it just empty words, and have exhorted him to move beyond mere caste slogans and give these communities a real say in the organisation, ticket distribution, and political leadership. The PDA will only become a sustainable alliance when every section sees its representation within it, they say.
The emergence of a third front could benefit the BJP, as this could split the Dalit-Muslim votes that might have otherwise gone to the opposition camp. If this alliance manages to secure even five to six per cent of the vote across the state, Chandrashekhar and Owaisi will establish themselves as a strong "third front", thereby hampering the SP-led alliance’s fortunes.
