In a major setback, the BJP lost two of the three assembly byelections, both in constituencies long considered party strongholds. While byelections are not always a reliable indicator of larger electoral trends, the results suggest that the political fallout from the student protests may have begun to dent the BJP even in its traditional bastions.
The biggest setback came in Bihar's Bankipur, where Jan Suraj founder Prashant Kishor defeated BJP candidate Neeraj Kumar Sinha. Bankipur has been one of the BJP's safest urban seats for three decades. The party has held it continuously since 1995. BJP national president Nitin Nabin first won the seat in the 2006 byelection and retained it in every subsequent election until he vacated it. Before him, the constituency was represented by his father, Nabin Kishore Prasad Sinha, who had held it since 1995. Together, father and son turned Bankipur into one of the BJP's strongest family bastions.
Bankipur was a prestige contest for both the BJP and Kishor.
The defeat carries significance beyond a single assembly seat. It was the BJP government's first electoral test since Samrat Choudhary became Bihar chief minister. It also came amid the political fallout from the student protests, the police crackdown and the resignation of Dharmendra Pradhan as Union education minister. Jan Suraj successfully framed the byelection as a referendum on the government's handling of the unrest, while focusing its campaign on jobs and youth issues.
For Prashant Kishor, the result marks a turning point. His party failed to win a single seat in the 2025 assembly elections, where 236 of its 238 candidates forfeited their deposits. Its candidate in Bankipur had secured less than five per cent of the vote share. Winning one of the BJP's strongest seats suggests that Jan Suraj can emerge as a serious political force in a state long dominated by the BJP-JD(U) and RJD-Congress alliances.
Bankipur is part of Patna, which witnessed some of the largest protests over examination paper leaks. The police response fuelled public anger, and Kishor consistently aligned himself with the students' demands, including during the 2025 assembly elections campaign. His entry into the assembly gives him a platform he lacked after the last election and strengthens his challenge to both the BJP-JD(U) alliance and the RJD-Congress opposition.
The Bankipur result would be a wake-up call for the BJP, and may force the party to take corrective measures.
The BJP also suffered a setback in Madhya Pradesh's Datia, where the campaign was overshadowed by internal divisions. The party denied a ticket to former home minister Narottam Mishra, who had represented the constituency three times, and instead fielded Ashutosh Tiwari. The decision angered Mishra's supporters before the leadership stepped in to contain the rebellion.
The Congress also changed its candidate. Instead of fielding local leader Awdesh Nayak after Rajendra Bharti's disqualification, it nominated former MLA Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh. The decision upset sections of the local organisation, and Bharti was expelled from the party just hours before counting, on allegations of anti-party activities.
Although both parties faced internal dissent, the BJP's defeat in Datia has cast a shadow over the Mohan Yadav government. It suggests that local anti-incumbency and organisational discontent are beginning to hurt the party even in constituencies once considered safe.
The only exception was Gujarat's Manjalpur, where the BJP retained its dominance. The constituency has consistently delivered emphatic victories to the party, with more than 65 per cent vote share in each of the last three assembly elections and more than 75 per cent in 2022.
Byelections rarely determine the course of national or state politics. But defeats in long-held strongholds often serve as early warning signs.
For the BJP, these results are notable because they come at a time when the party is facing sustained criticism from Gen Z over examination paper leaks and its handling of the student protests. The agitation has already led to the resignation of a Union minister. The byelection results suggest that the political fallout may now be extending to the electoral arena.
Whether these defeats prove to be a temporary setback or the beginning of a broader political shift will become clear only in future elections. For now, these have put the BJP on the back foot.
