CPI(M)'s warning over AIADMK rebels: Will Vijay’s bid for stability trigger a coalition collapse?

CPI(M) has warned that it will reconsider support to the government if any AIADMK faction is inducted into the Cabinet

Vijay signs documents as he takes charges as Tamil Nadu Chief Minister on May 10 | PTI Vijay signs documents as he takes charges as Tamil Nadu Chief Minister on May 10 | PTI

Barely ten days after taking oath as Chief Minister, C. Joseph Vijay is already confronting a major political challenge: keeping his fragile coalition intact. On Tuesday, the CPI(M), with two MLAs, warned that it would reconsider support to the government if any AIADMK faction is inducted into the Cabinet.

The warning comes amid speculation that Vijay’s government could seek support from rebel AIADMK legislators. During the Assembly trust vote, at least 25 MLAs backed the government, even as the official AIADMK faction led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami voted against it. This fuelled rumours of a tacit understanding between the TVK leadership and rebel AIADMK groups led by senior leaders S.P. Velumani and C. Ve Shanmugam.

Responding to questions on the possibility of accommodating AIADMK rebels in the ministry, CPI(M) State Secretary P. Shanmugam said the party would then reconsider its support to the government.

“I think the TVK will not go to that extent. But if the party decides to accommodate the AIADMK rebel group in the Council of Ministers, the CPI(M) will reconsider its support to the TVK,” he told reporters in Tiruvarur, according to PTI.

Shanmugam clarified that the Left parties extended support primarily to prevent the imposition of President’s Rule and what he described as a “backdoor entry of BJP rule” in the state. He also argued that Tamil Nadu is not prepared for another election so soon after the recent Assembly polls, noting that voters rejected both the DMK- and AIADMK-led alliances.

“No party secured a majority. TVK emerged as the single largest party and therefore had the mandate to form the government. To ensure governance by an elected party, the Left parties and the VCK extended outside support to the TVK,” he said.

The CPI(M)’s remarks came a day after DMK president and former Chief Minister M.K. Stalin told party cadres to remain prepared for fresh elections, suggesting that the Vijay-led government could collapse at any moment.

TVK, which won 108 seats in the Assembly—10 short of a majority—formed the government with support from the Congress and four former DMK allies. While the Congress, with five seats, will be part of the government, parties such as the VCK, CPI, CPI(M), and IUML, each holding two seats, are extending outside support.

According to reports, the CPI, CPI(M), and IUML decided to support Vijay after consultations with Stalin. 

The DMK is believed to be anticipating political instability, particularly if the Speaker disqualifies rebel AIADMK MLAs or if former DMK allies withdraw support to the government. While Stalin foresees the possibility of assembly elections in 2029, DMK leader and Tiruchendur MLA Anitha Radhakrishnan made an even more aggressive prediction, saying the government would not last beyond six months.

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